Why The Rubio/McCain Amnesty Plan Would Mean That We’d Never Have Another Conservative President


“There are many negative consequences to amnesty, but the one that I think ought to concern this crowd is that if amnesty goes through, America becomes California and no Republican will ever win another national election.”Ann Coulter

The day 10-12 million illegal aliens become American citizens, the Democrats pad their voter margin by a number as large as the one Obama beat Romney by in 2012. Additionally, while it’s wise to never say never in American politics, it seems highly likely that it would also mean that multiple states, including Texas would turn permanently blue and insure that there will never be another conservative President.

Moreover, despite what you hear from advocates of amnesty, all available evidence suggests that the GOP will not get any kind of significant, long term bounce with Hispanics from passing an amnesty. After all, if it didn’t work the first time with a Republican President why in the world would we think it would work the second time with a Democrat in charge?

The only way the GOP could be helped politically by backing amnesty would be if our numbers with Hispanic Americans went through the roof as a result of the policy. Well, guess what? This concept has been tested in the real world. In 1984, Ronald Reagan received 37% of the Hispanic vote. Then, in 1986, he backed a “one-time” amnesty for illegal aliens. The result? In 1988, George Bush received 30% of the Hispanic vote. If the exact same thing happened again with 12 million illegal immigrants, it would be like the crack of doom for the conservative movement.

Take a look at the numbers.

Dem GOP
1980/Reagan/Carter) 56% 35%
1984 (Reagan/Mondale) 61% 37%
1988 (Bush/Dukakis) 69% 30%
1992 (Bush/Clinton) 61% 25%
1996 (Dole/Clinton) 72% 21%
2000 (Bush/Gore) 62% 35%
2004 (Bush/Kerry) 58% 40%
2008 (Obama/McCain) 67% 31%
2012 (Obama/Romney) 71% 27%
Average 64% 31%

So, for the last 8 election cycles, the GOP has pulled between 21-40% of the Hispanic vote. Can the right candidate pull us up to the high end of that range? Absolutely. In fact, my guess is that Rick Perry probably would have scored ten points higher with Hispanics than Romney did. Marco Rubio could probably do the same thing. But, if the bet is that Barack Obama passing an amnesty plan will suddenly drive the GOP’s numbers permanently up to the high end of that scale or beyond to the magic 50% number, the evidence points to exactly the opposite conclusion.

So, setting aside the fact that illegal aliens don’t deserve the privilege of becoming American citizens since they’re here illegally, it would be a deathblow for conservatism in America to bring in so many sure-to-be-Democratic voters. It’s understandable that Democrats would want to demographically flood conservatism out of existence, but it’s much harder to understand why any conservative would want to support a policy that could very easily kill conservatism in America over the long haul.

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