The first interview with Dennis Avery was one of my all-time faves because I have never talked to anyone who does a better job of quickly and precisely demolishing the alarmism and silliness of the manmade global warming crowd.
With that in mind, last week I thought it would be a great time to get together with Dennis Avery for another interview. So, here’s a slightly edited transcript of our phone conversation from last week. Enjoy!
…The very mild warming that the earth experienced over the last century: does that have more to do with mankind’s activities or the sun?
It seems like it must be the sun. The reason we say that is because 70% of the warming we’ve had since 1850, when the Little Ice Age ended — 70% of that warming came before 1940. 85% of the human emitted greenhouse gasses came after 1940. In fact, the net warming of the earth since 1940 is a miniscule 2/10 of 1 degree celsius….
Another question related to your last book: if you listen to global warming alarmists, they’ll tell you that the earth is warmer than it ever has been during mankind’s history. Is that true?
No. Absolutely untrue. The…warming before our last ice age was much warmer than anything we’ve had since. We had a warming that peaked 9000 years ago, another warming that peaked 5000 years ago. Both were warmer than today. Probably the Roman warming and the medieval warming were both warmer than today — and we’ve had 8 warmings of the earth since the last Ice Age.
How do we know those periods were warmer than we are today?
We know this from Paleontological evidence. From the ice cores….which tell us the air temperature when that ice was laid down. We’ve got the fossils of little Fitoplankton critters in the ocean. They die, their fossils are laid out in annual layers of sediment. We’ve drilled down a million years with oil drilling equipment, we bring up sediment instead of oil, and the fossils tell us….the temperature when that sediment was laid down. So, with this kind of evidence, we know the earth’s temperature going back a million years and it has always been either warming or cooling.
Global warming has occurred, at least to a certain extent, over the last century, but there seems to be some real debate over whether it is still occurring at all. You’ve recently said you believe we’re about to experience mild global cooling. Can you tell us about that?
We are experiencing now, mild global cooling. We had a peak temperature in 1998, at the end of a hot El Nino and the climate model said this is just the beginning, it’s going to get much hotter. But, it didn’t. For 10 years, the temperature held stable.
During this time, from 2000 onward, the sunspots were predicting cooling. Let me point out to your readers that sunspots have had a strong history of predicting our temperature changes 10 years from now. A 10 year lag in predicting how solar activity will warm or cool the ocean. But, from 2000 on, they were predicting cooling.
2007, we got it. 2007 was significantly cooler and that was the first major downturn in the temperature in 30 years. That cooling has persisted — at this point, in temperature, about back where we were in the year 1900.
Yesterday, I debated a guy on the Irish radio network and he said, “Oh that’s not true, the UN has not told me that the temperatures went down.” I said, “If the UN can’t read their own thermometers they’re in even bigger trouble than I thought.”
But, the Hadley Centre in Britain, the Goddard Space Institute here in the US, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville, which gathers data from the temperature satellites, all told us the temperatures have gone down. They also just announced weeks ago that their…satellite shows the Pacific has shifted into a cooling phase. This is important because for the last 400 years, the earth’s temperatures have mirrored the temperatures in the Northern Pacific.
…The end of the warming phase was 1998 then the Pacific fluttered around for 10 years…and now the cooling phase has begun, is likely to last for another 25-30 years….moderate cooling, not another ice age — the same sort of cooling we had from 1940-1976.
So, would it be fair to say that for the next decade, global temperatures are not going to get hotter than they were in 1998?
They are likely to trend slowly downward not just for the next decade, but for the next 3 decades.
Many global warming alarmists say there is a scientific consensus on global warming, that almost everyone agrees with them, almost unanimously among scientists. Is that true?
…With the temperatures scheduled for a 25 year cooling, I think the consensus just went out the window. I think the consensus people have just run off a cliff like Wile E. Coyote in the Roadrunner cartoons and they’re in mid-air with their feet spinning madly while they wait for the earth to smash them to the ground far below.
Now, we regularly hear doomsday predictions about the terrible effects global warming is going to cause 50-100 years from now. How do they come up with those predictions and how much validity do you think they have?
I think they pull their predictions out of their hats and I don’t think they have any validity whatsoever….
Another thing I have noticed is that even the global warming alarmists were right: the solutions that they’re suggesting don’t come close to fixing the problems. Kyoto, these cap and trade schemes, they are really expensive and actually do very little to reduce greenhouse gasses. Any thoughts on that?
They’re really talking about going back to the Great Depression. Nobody has a car, nobody could afford the fuel if they had a car. They’re talking about living a hundred yards from the factory, except there isn’t going to be a factory because there is not going to be any coal burning to power it. No nuclear power, no drilling for oil, no hope.
I just want to remind you that there are millions of people in the Third World, women and children, heating and cooking with cow manure, firewood that they gather off the mountainside. The air pollution in some of those areas is equal to a 2 pack a day cigarette habit. …If there’s no kerosene, no propane, no nuclear electricity, are we all going to be in that situation?
…Is there anything else you’d like to say or promote before we finish?
I think we’ve gotten most of it.
Thank you for your time. I appreciate it.