My Election 2004 Predictions

03 Nov, 2004 by John Hawkins

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My pre-election 2004 Senate, battleground state, & popular vote predictions along with how things actually played out…

The Competitive Senate Races

State: South Dakota
My Analysis: Edge to Thune (75/25)
Winner: Thune (R) 50% Vs. Daschle (D) 49%

State: Florida
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)
Winner: Martinez (R) 49% Vs. Castor (D) 48%

State: Colorado
My Analysis: Edge to Salazar (75/25)
Winner: Salazar (D) 50% Vs. Coors (R) 47%

State: Oklahoma
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)
Winner: Coburn (R) 53% Vs. Carson (D) 41%

State: Alaska
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)
Winner: Murkowski (R) 49% Vs. Knowles (D) 45% W/ 98% of the vote counted

State: North Carolina
My Analysis: Edge to Burr (75/25)
Winner: Burr (R) 52% Vs. Bowles (D) 47%

State: Louisiana
My Analysis: Edge To Vitter (75/25 chance of hitting 50%)
Winner: Vitter (R) 51% Vs. John (D) 29% Vs. Kennedy (D) 15%

Battleground State Calls In The Presidential Race

State: Florida
My Analysis: Slight Edge for Bush (60/40)
Winner: Bush 52% Vs. Kerry 47%

State: Pennsylvania
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)
Winner: Kerry 51% Vs. Bush 49%

State: Ohio
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50)
Winner: Bush 51% Vs. Kerry 49%

State: Michigan
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)
Winner: Kerry 51% Vs. Bush 48%

State: Minnesota
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50)
Winner: Kerry 51% Vs. Bush 48%

State: Wisconsin
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50)
Winner: Kerry 50% Vs. Bush 49%

State: Iowa
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25)
Winner: Bush 50% Vs. Kerry 49%

State: New Mexico
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25)
Winner: Bush 50 Vs. Kerry 49%

State: Hawaii
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)
Winner: Kerry 54% Vs. Bush 45%

State: New Hampshire
My Analysis: Leaning towards Kerry (75/25)
Winner: Kerry 50% Vs. Bush 49%

Popular Vote

My prediction: Bush 51% Vs. Kerry 48%
Popular vote count: Bush 51% Vs. Kerry 48%