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Kneecapping Barack Obama at every opportunity. | ||
Thanks to Laurence Simon from Amish Tech Support, Talk Radio Host Cam Edwards who also runs a blog called Cam Edwards.com, David Hogberg of Cornfield Commentary & The American Spectator Online, Pejman Yousefzadeh from Pejmanesque, & Kamil Zogby from Zogby Blog for participating in this symposium. Here is the edited transcript of our discussion last night...
John Hawkins: To begin with, unless Hilliary or Gore got in the race, I'd say Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman, & Edwards are the only candidates with even an outside chance to get the nomination. Do you agree?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Yes. But, Al Sharpton can definitely play spoiler and can make life miserable for the other candidates.
Laurence Simon: Not only will I put a "no" on Lieberman, but I would not count Sharpton out of it. Sharpton is not just a spoiler, but can rally the 'disenfranchised' voter. He could mount one heck of a protest vote.
David Hogberg: I'd leave Lieberman out -- the base wants a lefty, he's still too moderate.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: And I would leave Lieberman out as well -- the Democrats are in no mood for a centrist. They are having a Goldwater moment, thus far. Especially if Sharpton mounts an independent campaign after losing the nomination.
Laurence Simon: Heck, if Bush keeps up with this Roadmap crap, I'm voting Sharpton.
Cam Edwards: Sharpton won't play outside major metropolitan areas.
John Hawkins: I don't believe Lieberman is going to get the nod, but I don't think we can leave out the guy leading overall at this early date.
David Hogberg: Lieberman was last time's Veep nominee -- he should be doing much better in the polls. But, he's in the middle of the pack on most.
Kamil Zogby: Lieberman's fundraising is reportedly tanking.
Cam Edwards: Well, Carol Mosely Braun was just quoted as saying it's 'theoretically possible' she could get the nomination.
John Hawkins: Cam: Yes it theoretically possible, if the other candidates were hit by an asteroid or something...
Kamil Zogby: She's not on the radar screen and she has no money.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: A lot of Democratic centrists could gravitate to Graham since he was antiwar as well, and since he is perceived as having national security credentials.
John Hawkins: Anybody surprised that Graham is doing so little so far?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Not really. He had heart surgery recently. Also, he is kind of bland.
John Hawkins: Well, they're all kind of bland except for Sharpton.
David Hogberg: Yeah, give it a month or two, then we'll see. But, I wouldn't be surprised if by then we've written him off.
Laurence Simon: Odd how the Democrats have lots of problems with Cheney being a cardiac patient, but none with Graham.
Cam Edwards: I think the health problems will hurt Graham more than his views on the war.
Kamil Zogby: Kerry and Lieberman are the two most prominent candidates who haven't done the hard swing left.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Kerry tacks left from time to time. I think he is trying to confuse people into thinking he is on their side.
Cam Edwards: Here in Oklahoma there's quite a bit of talk about Dean.
David Hogberg: In Iowa too.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Good or bad?
David Hogberg: All good here.
Cam Edwards: Good talk. People seem to like him, although they're already saying they think it's a shame he won't get the nomination.
John Hawkins: Either Hillary or Gore could easily win the nomination in my opinion, so why do you think neither is getting in the race?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Because people are sick of Gore, and because Hillary is still toxic.
Cam Edwards: Two words... they'll lose.
Kamil Zogby: Gore can't raise the money, and Clinton is waiting for 08.
Laurence Simon: They want to establish lucrative speaking engagements and book deals to build up a nest-egg to live on in case they lose.
Cam Edwards: Why risk running against a popular president when you can run for an open seat in '08?
John Hawkins: I tend to think that as well, but doesn't that mean the top dogs in the Democratic party really think the Dems have no chance of winning in 2004?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: That's the point -- Gore and Hillary are not top dogs. They are big names, but they are not electable.
John Hawkins: They're more electable than anyone who's running currently...
David Hogberg: If the economy continues to slide, Gore or Hillary become far more electable, but that is a BIG IF.
Kamil Zogby: How will Hillary's book affect her in 2008?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: By 2008, few people will remember the book.
Cam Edwards: By 2008 you'll be able to buy her book in front of Barnes and Noble for $3.98.
David Hogberg: That much?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Inflation adjusted.
Cam Edwards: If the Democrats were going to capture the White House in 2004, they'd do it with a candidate like Howard Dean, not John Kerry.
Kamil Zogby: Dean could never get elected in a general election.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Neither could Goldwater or Mondale. But, that is the kind of moment the Democrats are having thus far.
David Hogberg: Neither could Kerry.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: There is a difference between doing the savvy stuff that is needed to get elected and merely hating the guy on the other side. Right now, the Democrats are in the latter category.
John Hawkins: So here's another question -- are Dean and Kerry both so far to the left that they're unelectable?
David Hogberg: Dean yes.
David Hogberg: Kerry, not yet, but he's getting there.
Kamil Zogby: Kerry's wife can't keep her mouth shut long enough to make him a viable candidate against Bush.
John Hawkins: Kerry votes to the left of Ted Kennedy...
Laurence Simon: Dean, Kerry, and Edwards are like Western conference teams trying to find out who gets to lose to the Jordan Dynasty Chicago Bulls.
Cam Edwards: Would that make Kucinich the John Stockton of the Democratic Party? I don't think ANY of these candidates could get elected, but Dean has the potential to be the grassroots guy that gets a lot of support from people disenfranchised with 'career' politicians.
Kamil Zogby: What about Edwards?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Edwards' problem is the one that Bill Clinton diagnosed -- Edwards is weak on policy knowledge.
Cam Edwards: There's no buzz about Edwards here in Oklahoma.
John Hawkins: There's not much buzz about Edwards anywhere. He's raising lots of money yet getting no traction.
David Hogberg: Edwards has very nice hair and Edwards is a trial lawyer...very bad.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Let's not bash lawyers here! ;-)
Kamil Zogby: Will Biden enter?
John Hawkins: Biden would just be another guy back in the pack getting no traction. I'd like to know which Democrat -- in or out of the race -- should Bush fear the most?
David Hogberg: He doesn't have anyone to fear unless the economy get much worse.
Laurence Simon: He needs to fear Carter. Carter will die during the race, and the Democrats won't screw up like they did last time with Wellstone.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Laurence: Truly the milk of human kindness runs through your veins. ;-)
Cam Edwards: In the race? I'll say Kerry, just for his polish. Out of the race? Jayson Blair.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Did everyone know that John Kerry served in Vietnam?
John Hawkins: Yes, he repeats it endlessly. He was also an anti-war protestor after the war and I bet Karl Rove has footage of him marching with Commies in his closet somewhere.
Kamil Zogby: How about Gen. Wesley Clark?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: I think it is too late for Clark. But, he could be a Vice Presidential pick.
David Hogberg: Clark criticized the Iraq war too much. His credibility is lacking.
Cam Edwards: But, he's a military guy... he can get away with that.
John Hawkins: So let's break it down, who's the dangerous candidate to Bush in the race?
David Hogberg: None.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Lieberman.
John Hawkins: I'd say Lieberman because he's hawkish on defense and comes off as a centrist.
Cam Edwards: Kerry.
Kamil Zogby: Right now Kerry, but he's weak.
Laurence Simon: Sharpton.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Laurence, why not suggest Mao Zedong?
Laurence Simon: Pejman - Mao's dead, and he's not an American-born citizen, silly.
John Hawkins: Kerry? Really? I don't even think Kerry is electable...Ehr, Sharpton?
Kamil Zogby: Truth is, no one is a danger to Bush in 04. The Democratic coalition is falling apart.
David Hogberg: Yeah, whoever the nominee is, the base is gonna pull him so far to the left that he won't be able to tack to the center during the general campaign.
John Hawkins: You really don't think Bush is any danger in 2004? That seems really optimistic given that the economy is still soft.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: In all seriousness, we shouldn't think that this race is over and won with. I remember 1992. *Shudder*
Kamil Zogby: Or 1996!
Cam Edwards: I tend to agree. Bush might be in trouble if the Democrats had someone who had charisma, character, and experience.
David Hogberg: It's not 1992--9/11 makes it very different. Plus the Dem base is now where the Republican base was a few years ago. Very fractured...unwilling to accept someone who can appeal to the middle.
John Hawkins: Wow, I think we're in very good position but gee, if you think Bush is all but unbeatable you're way ahead of me.
Cam Edwards: I'm hoping Al Franken runs in 2008. Maybe with Janeane Garofolo as a running mate.
Laurence Simon: Al Franken will be making too much money with his 'liberal Rush Limbaugh' radio show. He'll never run for anything.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: The problem with the Democrats is that they are massacring the Scoop Jackson wannabes in their party.
Kamil Zogby: That's the problem with any Dem. They have to swing so far left they can never get back to the center. The DLC's right.
John Hawkins: Speaking of which, how much of a problem do you believe foreign policy will be for the Dems in 2004?
Laurence Simon: Depends on the bodycount that results from Colin Powell's apparent divorce from reality at State.
Cam Edwards: I can't think of a candidate that I'd feel comfortable with in a wartime situation.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: If there are renewed terrorist attacks on American soil -- it'll be a big problem.
John Hawkins: I still think that gives the edge to Bush. I don't see people turning on him even if there are attacks.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: It could, depending on how the White House handles it. I'm just saying that the best way for the Democrats to gain traction is if there is an attack.
Kamil Zogby: People trust the President, and he has EARNED that trust.
John Hawkins: I think the problem the Dems have is that they're so weak and wishy washy on foreign policy that you can't even trust a hawk like Lieberman or Graham to do the right thing because his own party will tie his hands behind his back.
Cam Edwards: I agree, John.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Exactly right, John.
Kamil Zogby: Correct sir.
David Hogberg: Yep.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Imagine a Democratic President trying to break the Lilliputian bonds of the United Nations.
Kamil Zogby: ...Or the EU
John Hawkins: ...Then more than half their party flips out and turns on them, like Labor in Britain on Blair, only worse.
Laurence Simon: UN HQ needs to be cleared out and replaced by a casino-brothel. That way Americans still get screwed and lose money there.
Kamil Zogby: I think Bush was wrong to come out this early for Cheney. The BEST ticket would be Bush/Rice.
Cam Edwards: I agree with you, Zogby.
John Hawkins: You know I love Condi, but she's never been elected to anything and most non-political junkies don't even know who she is.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Also, the right wing really doesn't like Rice's views on abortion.
Kamil Zogby: It would be historic. Politically, it would also build support for Bush among blacks.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Yeah, but liberal blacks see Condi as a house slave.
John Hawkins: If she actually goes out and wins the governorship of Cali in 2006 like some people are talking she could go all the way, but I think Bush should stick with Cheney in 2004.
David Hogberg: Bush was wrong to go with Cheney from the beginning.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Why? Cheney has been superb.
David Hogberg: He's been a great military/foreign policy asset, but added no weight to the ticket in 2000.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Vice Presidential candidates NEVER add weight. NEVER.
Laurence Simon: Pejman - Ferraro added lots of weight to Mondale. Sank him like a stone. ;)
David Hogberg: Not true. Lieberman added more credibility to Gore.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Of course it is. Tell me about the last Vice Presidential candidate who helped carry something. You would have to go back to Johnson in 1960. Lieberman did nothing. People still thought Gore was tainted by the Clinton years.
David Hogberg: Gore's poll numbers jumped after picking Lieberman...
Pejman Yousefzadeh: And then sank afterwards. Mondale's poll numbers jumped after Ferraro...
Laurence Simon: Parties always have spikes when they finish their little convention parties. Then reality sinks in.
John Hawkins: So let's say Lieberman/Kerry are the ticket just for the sake of argument. What should they do to try to win?
Cam Edwards: I'm thinking, John. That's a tough question.
John Hawkins: I'd try to outhawk Bush on North Korea and Iran and push a Balanced Budget Amendment(that's a weakspot). I'd also say I would way outspend Bush on homeland security...
David Hogberg: It's not easy to outhawk Bush on that. The Balanced Budget Amendment is a good idea, but so many Dems opposed it.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Yeah, but the Democrats themselves came out against a Balanced Budget Amendment. They would have to do backflips on that.
John Hawkins: Since when have backflips ever bothered politicians?
Cam Edwards: The problem with trying to outhawk Bush is that it's so completely against the ideology of the party. I don't think they'd be taken seriously.
John Hawkins: Lieberman could pull it off.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: The Democrats would rather be Left than be President.
John Hawkins: That's probably true Pejman, but I don't think they'll win like that in 2004.
Laurence Simon: Backflips will harm politicians more than before now that their records are being combed and audited by bloggers.
John Hawkins: Speaking of that -- how much of an impact will the blogosphere have on the 2004 elections?
Cam Edwards: Very little, in my opinion. Pejman > A big one. Dean is blogging already, so a candidate is actually doing it. And we will have bloggers going to the convention. Sullivan and Ruffini are planning on doing it.
David Hogberg: It's a rising force. It will have a small impact in 2004 and will grow larger over time.
Laurence Simon: I think we'll see the small-time reporters keeping online blogs with coverage to compete with the meaningless washed-down big-time reporter coverage.
John Hawkins: I think the biggest impact blogs will have will be by fact checking and pointing out inconsistencies. Blogs themselves don't have a big enough audience to get that info out to the public, but the reporters who read blogs do. So I think the news will boil up from the blogosphere and make an impact.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: It's already won its spurs with regards to the war and the media. It should be big for the election.
David Hogberg: I wouldn't be surprised to see it be the tipping factor in a national election in the next decade
Laurence Simon: Of course, IndyMedia is too concerned with the government controlling the weather right now to deal with election politics.
David Hogberg: Tell them to bring some d*mn sunshine to Iowa, will ya!
John Hawkins: What? The GOP making it rain in Democrat heavy districts to cut turnout? That's so crazy..it just might work! What about the House and Senate? Is the GOP in any danger there in your opinion?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Nope.
David Hogberg: The GOP will pick up seats in the House, 5 or 6. Senate, it depends.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: More incumbents are up for election in the Senate, and gerrymandering in the House is going to help the GOP.
Kamil Zogby: The GOP will pick up seats in both houses in 04. If the Dems couldn't pick up seats in the House in 2000, theres no way they will in 2004. Bush has coattails.
David Hogberg: If Giuliani runs in NY, it will very likely GOP pickup.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: I kind of want Giuliani to save himself for 2006.
David Hogberg: Pej - I can't imagine why.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: So he can annihilate Hillary.
David Hogberg: Right now, Giuliani is hot -- but by 2006, who knows?
Cam Edwards: I want to see Giuliani's kid and Kerry's wife share a podium at some point. Can you imagine the unintentional comedy?
John Hawkins: What's the biggest political mistake Bush is currently making or that you see on the horizon for him?
Laurence Simon: ROADMAP... he's p*ssing off them Neocons.
David Hogberg: ...And losing some Jewish support -- just when the Jews were beginning to lean GOP.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: I think he can't emphasize the economy enough. He needs to make it clear that he is focusing on domestic politics as well as the foreign policy aspect. Also, where is school choice?
Kamil Zogby: We need a voucher bill on a national basis.
Cam Edwards: Biggest mistake for me as a parent is No Child Left Behind. It's time for serious school reform, not more of the same window dressing.
Kamil Zogby: All the pork spending, the Farm Bill. He's not controlling spending.
David Hogberg: Yes, spending is a problem. Especially if the deficit catches fire as an issue.
John Hawkins: What about the Assault Weapon ban...do you see that as a problem with the NRA crowd?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Yes John, that could be quite bad. He would hurt his base with that one.
David Hogberg: Assault weapons ban....not really. I mean, somewhere Rove has polling that supporting the ban ticks off a miniscule percent of NRA folks, but does wonders with soccer moms.
Cam Edwards: The NRA doesn't like it... but where are they going to go? Kerry?
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Yeah, but you don't want to p*ss off devoted single issue voters. They could just sit out.
Cam Edwards: But they won't, because NRA folks typically see the right to vote as a very important part of being an American. They'll be reluctant, they'll be vocal, but they won't stay away.
John Hawkins: Hopefully Delay and company will sandbag it in the House so it won't be a big issue...
David Hogberg: Any loss is offset by substantial gains in soccer moms.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Maybe, but if they are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, they may just say 'forget it.' Just like they did in 1992. Soccer moms aren't as devoted in going to the polls.
Laurence Simon: I figure that most of this is moot, considering that Iran will build its Russian-designed nukes and turn us all into slag by 2005.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: The Islamic regime will fall before then, Laurence.
David Hogberg: Yes, and Bush also needs to consider a tactical strike against Iran's nuke program.
Cam Edwards: July 9th... general strike in Iran. Is that date still accurate?
John Hawkins: Yeah, but how big of a deal it will turn out to be, I don't know. In any case, we're making a huge mistake if we let the Iranians build nukes.
Cam Edwards: From what I understand, they're planning on it being a huge deal.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: It could be a very big deal. Especially if it gets coverage, and Bush Administration support.
John Hawkins: I hope it will be Pejman. I think The Bush administration should be saying more about Iran right now.
Cam Edwards: Look for our talk to ratchet up in the next few weeks, John. Remember, we have the attention span of sand fleas. If you start talking about Iran now, people will lose interest by July 9th.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Yes, but a drum beat is crucial--just like the one with Saddam. They need to treat Iran the way the Reagan Administration treated Poland in the 1980s. I think that if the Administration helps the dissidents, they will do their work for us.
John Hawkins: Last question...Pick the Democrat candidate who'll win the nomination and tell us if he'll win, lose, or lose big...Oh and pick his VP.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: Kerry will win the nomination. Edwards will be his VP. They will lose by a margin of anywhere between 8-10 points.
Cam Edwards: Dean/Sharpton.
Laurence Simon: Dean/Sharpton... they lose so big, Walter Mondale gets a stiffy.
David Hogberg: Well, I like to gamble so here goes: nominee will be Kerry, Bush wins with 60 percent of the vote. For Veep, keep your eye on California polling and if by mid-summer Bush is winning there against the Dem nominee, then the Dems have to go with Feinstein. The Dems don't have a chance if they don't win California.
Cam Edwards: Kerry/Graham, by 8 or 9 points.
John Hawkins: I agree with Pejman except I think the margin will be a little smaller -- you two really think Sharpton would be on the ticket? I think any serious candidate would rather cut off his pinky than run with Sharpton.
Cam Edwards: No, I was just kidding. I'll dress like a woman for a week if Sharpton ends up on the ticket.
Kamil Zogby: Kerry loses big. VP: Mosely-Braun. Bush wins with 65%.
John Hawkins: 65%???????? That's like every single vote except the diehard Dems...
Kamil Zogby: Yes John, 65%, and I'm sticking with it.
John Hawkins: Lol...OK, Sharpton and 65% -- I'm keeping that in mind =) Thank you for participating.
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