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Kneecapping Barack Obama at every opportunity. | ||
I got together last night with Cassandra from I Love Jet Noise, Chris Muir from Day By Day & Donald Luskin from The Conspiracy To Keep You Poor And Stupid, Trend Macrolytics, & National Review Online to discuss the 2004 election. Below is an edited transcript of our chat.
John Hawkins: First off, what does everyone think about John Edwards as a VP selection for Kerry? Was he the best choice or could Kerry have done better?
Donald Luskin: They say that Edwards didn't give Kerry much of a bump in the polls, but I disagree.
John Hawkins: Yeah, looks like about 5 - 7 points.
Donald Luskin: I watch the future's contracts on Bush's re-election, the ones that trade online at Tradesports.com. Since Edwards was selected, Bush has fallen from a 56% favorite to about 50%.
Chris Muir: Harold Ford would have been powerful.
John Hawkins: Ford is only 34 though.
Cassandra: I actually thought he was a good choice - Kerry is so unlikable - the ticket looks much more youthful and vibrant with Edwards on it. Keep in mind that Democrats are much more emotion-driven.
Donald Luskin: I think also that Edwards is very articulate -- comes off as smart. Bush is not a very good public spokesman. Big contrast. Also, Edwards sets off Cheney very well. The opposite of a 'secure and undisclosed location', the whole Darth Vader image Cheney has.
Cassandra: Edwards is articulate, but he didn't do well on the issues in the Democratic debates.
John Hawkins: So definitely better than Gephardt?
Donald Luskin: I know that the White House was expecting it to be Gephardt. They thought he would be the toughest opponent. So there's so relief there, for what that's worth.
Cassandra: I agree with Don on Gephardt.
John Hawkins: Personally, I thought the only thing Gephardt really had going for him was that labor liked him.
Cassandra: Gephardt was a tad shrill - that might not have been as good for Kerry. Edwards is more positive and upbeat - less of a long-face kind of guy.
Donald Luskin: Gephardt is a red-state kind of guy -- but the kind of red states that might actually go for Kerry. Kerry won't even get N. Carolina, Edwards' home state. So Gephardt would have been effective where there was some chance for him to be.
John Hawkins: Yeah, I don't see Kerry/Edwards taking NC.
Cassandra: Lots of military in NC. I'd be shocked to see Kerry take it.
Chris Muir: Cassandra's right on there.
Donald Luskin: True.
John Hawkins: So Matthew Dowd with the Bush campaign predicted Kerry will get a 15 point bump from the Democratic convention. You buy that?
Donald Luskin: 15 at the convention? Hard to believe. That would be severe.
Cassandra: I don't think people are as into conventions as they used to be.
John Hawkins: Well I believe the big 3 networks are only going to give both conventions an hour a night during prime time. So I suspect they're not going to get the usual bounce.
Cassandra: I don't think there's going to be a repeat of the legendary Clinton bounce.
John Hawkins: I'm going guess a 5 point bounce for the Dem convention.
Chris Muir: 3 points.
Donald Luskin: I worry more about the GOP convention than the Dem convention. All the protests are going to be played up ad nauseum.
Cassandra: All the whackos with their little bells.
Donald Luskin: Remember, the 1992 convention was a kiss of death for Bush 41. He never recovered from the bad vibes there.
John Hawkins: Yeah, thank you Patrick Buchanan for that...
Donald Luskin: Hubert Humphrey lost in 1968 after the riots at the Dem Chicago convention. It was close, though.
Chris Muir: Any bloggers to be at the GOP convention to offset the mainstream media?
Cassandra: The GOP almost dropped the ball on having bloggers there - they really had to be pushed into it.
John Hawkins: The GOP establishment doesn't want anything to do with bloggers. They're scared of us / think we're irrelevant.
Donald Luskin: I'm wondering if any of us here have seen "Fahrenheit 911"?
Chris Muir: Not yet.
Donald Luskin: It's one thing to have read about it, another to have seen it.
Cassandra: God no, but I suppose I should. I need anti-nausea meds first.
Donald Luskin: Mr. Hawkins?
John Hawkins: I have read most of the transcript, but have not gone to see it. I figured enough other people have shot holes in it, so I don't feel a powerful need to check it out.
Donald Luskin: I highly recommend it. I saw it the other day. Or to put it another way, I tried to. I could take about 3 minutes of it, and I walked out. I highly recommend you see those first 3 minutes. You have no idea just how incredibly evil this movie is. Every single sentence -- no, every phrase -- is a lie, either implicit or explicit.
Chris Muir: That's par.
Donald Luskin: Think of the worst Paul Krugman column and multiply by 1000. You need to witness this with you own eyes.
Cassandra: Moore is a buffoon - for the longest time I just refused to respond to anything he said or did.
Donald Luskin: This cuts to what I see as the heart of this election. There is something very evil and sick afoot in this country. There's a kind of mass hysteria mobilizing against Bush. It really is a classic 'mob mentality' phenomenon.
Cassandra: That's why I started responding - I was ignoring it as something beneath my dignity, but I started seeing that people were actually taking it seriously. How depressing.
Donald Luskin: The reaction to Moore really defines it, because the take now is 'It's ok if it's not true'. Because on some higher cosmic level it is thought to be true.
John Hawkins: That's liberalism at it's heart though in my opinion, moving towards the utopian vision liberals have is more important than the actual effects of their policies.
Cassandra: If you feel it, it must be true on some level.
Chris Muir: Emotion vs Reason for the Left - why can't they blend the two?
Donald Luskin: I worry that it will take something very tragic to break the hysteria.
John Hawkins: You know how you break it? Ya beat them, over and over at the ballot box, and eventually in defeat they'll gain perspective.
Cassandra: I think somewhere along the line we threw out the rule book and political discourse became so toxic that we can't discuss things anymore without hurt feelings and hysteria.
Donald Luskin: I often ponder whether it is truly more toxic today than ever before, or if that's myopia. I think it really is more toxic, down to a deeper level affecting more ordinary people.
Cassandra: I think the toxicity was always there, but it was somewhat constrained by manners. The difference is that there is no line that people are ashamed to cross now.
John Hawkins: So onto the GOP convention -- what do you think of the RINO lineup that's going to getting a lot of prime-time speaking opportunities?
Cassandra: It's the move to the center - the smartest thing Bush can do.
Donald Luskin: As to the RINO's, I think that's the smart thing to do. The last thing we need is a bunch of bible thumpers like 1992. Get real.
John Hawkins: Ya know, Reagan was a Bible thumper and so is Bush...it depends on how good of a tune ya thump on that Bible.
Donald Luskin: That's true. But, it also depends on the extent to which you force it down everyone's throats. Reagan believed personally, but didn't make it something that everyone else had to do.
Cassandra: Reagan was more of a pragmatist that many people admit.
Chris Muir: Well, the country was founded on Judeo-Christian precepts...
John Hawkins: But, I still agree with Arnold, McCain, & Rudy this time. They're all hot right now and since we have 'em, might as well use 'em. I also love having Zell Miller there.
Donald Luskin: Go Zell!
Chris Muir: Give 'em Zell!
Cassandra: That is a huge coup.
John Hawkins: I think it says something that he's speaking at the Convention.
Cassandra: It says the Dems are morally bankrupt and anyone with principles is jumping ship.
Donald Luskin: I agree it's great he's doing it. On the other hand, it slightly smacks of a dirty trick. Part of the toxicity. For example, you must surely loathe that Ron Reagan is speaking for the Dems.
Cassandra: Ron Reagan...don't get me started.
Chris Muir: Ugh. Mediocrity in his father's clothes.
John Hawkins: I do loathe it, but I don't think it's a dirty trick. Ron Reagan is a liberal, so why shouldn't he be speaking there? See me, I'd ask Michael to speak at the GOP convention as a counter.
Cassandra: The fact that Zell is speaking for us is a dirty trick. The fact that Ron Reagan is speaking for the Dems is a 'spontaneous expression of conscience'. That's how it will be interpreted by the NY Times.
John Hawkins: Well, I never expect conservatives to get a fair shake in the mainstream press. When a snake acts like a snake, I just figure that's what it always does. On to another topic. Should Dick Cheney be replaced on the ticket? The names I hear tossed out most often are Colin Powell, Condi Rice, John McCain, & Rudy Giuliani.
Cassandra: But - and I'm a woman - could Condi be President?
Donald Luskin: Powell and Giuliani are pro-choice. That would be difficult.
Chris Muir: No doubts for me on Rice.
Cassandra: I don't think she has the experience - yet.
Chris Muir: But, who ever does?
John Hawkins: Condi is pro-choice and most of her other domestic views are a total mystery.
Cassandra: A conservative won't get the credit for the black/woman thing anyway.
Chris Muir: I think the country's more than ready for a black woman as VP - our Thatcher, perhaps.
Donald Luskin: I wish we really knew more about Condi.
John Hawkins: I wouldn't support Condi for veep right now because she hasn't won anything yet. I think if you're going to play in the big leagues, you need to win a Governorship or at least make it as a Congressman.
Cassandra: I think she's a bit green for the job - we're talking someone a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
John Hawkins: Besides, for all I know, Condi could be to the left of Arlen Specter on domestic issues. Anyway, if he replaced Cheney, I think Bush would get a temp bounce and that's it. Like Dole adding Kemp to the ticket in 96.
Donald Luskin: Personally, I would love to see a pro-choice VP. Bush needs to be more like Arnold, and snub the religious right a little.
Cassandra: I agree.
John Hawkins: Out of that batch, I personally think Rudy would be the best choice. Although, I think we should leave Cheney in place.
Donald Luskin: Powell's the man.
Cassandra: I don't like Powell.
Donald Luskin: Why?
John Hawkins: The base doesn't like Powell though because he's such a moderate weenie.
Cassandra: Exactly. Powell is wishy-washy. He is perfect in State.
Donald Luskin: Screw the base. Who they gonna vote for, Nader? Swings are all that count now.
Chris Muir: Exactly.
John Hawkins: The base may stay home and catch some zzzz's or watch whatever is on the boob tube instead of turning out on election day.
Chris Muir: Powell is the black version of McCain.
Donald Luskin: Chris, I don't think that's a fair statement.
Cassandra: McCain's unstable.
Chris Muir: Both don't seem to have a stand.
Cassandra: Powell's not unstable - he's just doesn't have any fire in the belly. Powell is serious and thoughtful - very much like Carter. He'd make a poor executive for that reason. He's not decisive.
Donald Luskin: Powell is very serious and thoughtful. You may wish he had stronger views, like McCain. But that's what makes them so different. McCain is just a narcissistic loose cannon.
Cassandra: Don has McCain nailed.
John Hawkins: Since we're on this topic. Let's jump ahead to 2008.
Cassandra: I don't even have 2004 figured out! ARGH!
John Hawkins: The field so far may very well include: Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Chuck Hagel, Bill Frist, & Jeb Bush. Anybody in there float your boat?
Cassandra: Mitt Romney
Chris Muir: Rudy.
Donald Luskin: I see a total leadership drought. It's a sad state of affairs.
Cassandra: Romney impressed the heck out of me. I haven't seen that much of him though, so it may just be love at first sight.
John Hawkins: I don't know if Rudy will still be hot from how he handled 9/11 in 2008 and Romney has handled the gay marriage issue so poorly I can't imagine supporting him.
Cassandra: What can I say, I'm a cheap date...
Donald Luskin: One thing that really has a lot of GOPers fried is that Bush will be a double lame duck. There's no successor. Cheney's not going to run in 08.
John Hawkins: I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. That leaves the field wide open.
Cassandra: The lack of an heir apparent is troubling. But, someone will come forward - they always do.
Donald Luskin: The assumption is that Bush is trying to leave the field open for Jeb. So a lot of GOPers are seeing that as very selfish and dynastic. Not putting the party first.
Chris Muir: Not Jeb!
Cassandra: Jeb's not a player.
John Hawkins: I don't see Jeb doing anything either. 3 members of the Bush family is just too much.
Chris Muir: New grassroots blood is needed, not a flack.
Donald Luskin: Hey, I agree with you. But the reality is that's what a lot of insiders think Bush is thinking. They are very unhappy about it. That's who keeps floating these dump-Cheney balloons.
John Hawkins: So 2004 -- make a prediction for me. Bush or Kerry? Give me a rough estimate on Electoral votes too.
Donald Luskin: 280 Bush. That's my guess.
Cassandra: Bush wins, so long as nothing hideous happens.
John Hawkins: I'm guessing Bush by roughly a hundred electoral votes.
Chris Muir: Bush will win.
John Hawkins: Thanks for participating everyone. That's it!
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