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A Blogger Symposium On The California Recall
by John Hawkins
On Sunday night, I got together to discuss the California recall with Scott Ott from Scrappleface, Betsy Newmark from Betsy's Page, Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson from Powerline, & California resident Madison "Moxie" Slade from The Moxology. Here's the edited transcript of that conversation.
John Hawkins: So can Davis pull it out or do you definitely think he's going down no matter what?
Scott Ott: I think California should use the Wal-mart return policy for software...if it doesn't work, you can exchange it, but only for the item.
John Hawkins: Will the MEChA story hurt Bustamante?
Betsy Newmark:: It won't hurt him.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: The acronym doesn't have that KKK bite.
John Hawkins: Bustamante's negatives have zoomed in last couple of weeks even without the MEChA story getting the play it deserves...
Betsy Newmark: I haven't seen his negatives. What are they?
John Hawkins: They've gone from 29% in August to 50% now.
Scott Ott: Bustamante should affirm his membership in MEChA, and call for secession. Then the Californians could get their jobs back thanks to NAFTA.
Betsy Newmark: The membership in college was no biggie. It was his weaseling about it now that was so bad.
Scott Ott: Bustamante is closer to disavowing Davis than MEChA.
Betsy Newmark: Davis is more unpopular in CA than militant Hispanics.
John Hawkins: Personally, I don't think anyone who's not willing to renounce MEChA belongs in government.
Scott Ott: I would like to disavow MEChA at this time.
John Hawkins: I'd vote for you Scott -- unless you were running against Frank J. =D.
Scott Ott: Frank would be my bitter, resentful Lt. Gov.
Betsy Newmark: I think the sellout to the Indian tribes is more disturbing.
Scott Ott: We gave the Indians whiskey and took their land...now they're buying it back by purchasing our politicians with grandma's slot money.
John Hawkins: So should McClintock drop out? What does everyone say?
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: I think he should drop out...he's waiting to see if Arnold melts down...
Betsy Newmark: Yes, he clearly should if the polls stay as they are. Does he want to be the guy to guarantee a Gov. Bustamante?
John Hawkins: I'm of the opinion that Davis & Bustamante have a lot of dirt on Arnold and are waiting for McClintock to drop out before they turn the big guns on Arnold.
Betsy Newmark: Maybe, we should wait and see what the polls are after the debate.
Madison "Moxie" Slade: I agree with Betsy. But, he seems pretty stubborn about it right now.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: Drudge has posted stuff that is dirt.
Betsy Newmark: It sort of is amazing that Drudge's quotes about AS's racism haven't made it into the major media.
John Hawkins: Imagine a commercial with Robbie Robinson talking about how Arnold dropped the N-bomb on him over and over. Then there's the cheating on his wife, the gay rumors from early in his career, & the drug use. He has a graveyard in his closet, not just skeletons. He makes Bill Clinton look like a choir boy.
Scott Ott: I think McClintock is waiting for Schwarzenegger to use the N-bomb against some reporter who gets a little pushy.
Betsy Newmark: I don't think any of the sex dirt from 25 years ago is going to make a difference. The racist stuff could be a problem. I just think that since he's a celebrity he'll get a pass on any sexual allegations.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: There's too little time for them to bite, isn't there?
Betsy Newmark: There's always time. Think of the story about Bush's DWI the weekend before the election.
John Hawkins: Yeah, and I think they're waiting for McClintock to pull out before they hit him. I have to wonder how many Republicans who genuinely hate Clinton are going to pull the lever for someone who's far worse morally?
Madison "Moxie" Slade: Whatever he did in the past is partisan mud slinging.
The man is clearly a good money manager and that's what we need right now in California.
Scott Ott: It seems that the real strong point of the Arnold candidacy is the perception that he can win. What he did, who he is, or what he stands for, don't seem to matter.
John Hawkins: Question: If Arnold dropped out -- could McClintock win?
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: No.
Betsy Newmark: I don't think there is any way McClintock could win. That is a pipe dream. The winner will be Bustamante or Arnold and if Arnold starts tanking, Davis could win the recall vote.
Madison "Moxie" Slade: No, he's too conservative to garner the liberals who are wavering.
Scott Ott: Yes...but only if Republicans can get organized at the neighborhood level fast...and so...the answer is no.
John Hawkins: An LA Times poll puts McClintock at 18% and Arnold only 7 points ahead at 25%.
Betsy Newmark: I don't trust the LA Times polls at all. I think there's a ceiling on what a conservative Republican can get in CA.
Scott Ott: According to the latest LA Times poll...98 percent of Californians trust LA Times Polls.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: I'm afraid McClintock thinks of himself as a Churchillian figure whose time has come.
Scott Ott: As long as the Nazis start bombing Sacramento, McClintock has a chance.
John Hawkins: So does Arnold beat Bustamante if McClintock drops -- given that 25% or so of Cali votes will probably be absentee and the longer McClintock stays in, the more votes he takes from Arnold? I think Arnold has an excellent shot of beating Bustamante since the voters don't seem to care about his past peccadillos.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: I hope you're right.
John Hawkins: But Davis and Bustamante may be able to beat him down too, like I said, I think there is a LOT that hasn't come out yet.
Betsy Newmark: He needs a little more substance. All he has so far are platitudes about the children and helping business.
Betsy Newmark: Do you guys think that Proposition 54 (Editor's Note: Proposition 54 would ban public institutions from collecting data on race and ethnicity) has a chance?
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: Arnold blew it on that one...
Betsy Newmark: Remember Krauthammer's line. Arnold is a Kennedy Republican.
John Hawkins: Unfortunately, I tend to doubt it and even it wins, I suspect the left will find some sneaky way to overturn the will of the people in court.
Scott Ott: I loved Car 54 Where Are You...so, if Prop 54 is some kind of sequel...yeah...it should do well.
Betsy Newmark: I wonder if there are a lot of voters who won't know anything about it and will go by what it says, which sounds very reasonable.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: Kind of like equal rights without regard to skin color.
Betsy Newmark: Yeah, who could be against that except for race-mongers and lawyers?
John Hawkins: The left Betsy, only the right believe in a color-blind world these days. That's sad, but true.
John Hawkins: While Davis has been a disaster for California and I'm not sure Bustamante would be any better, do you think Republicans should be excited about Arnold or is he just Al Gore with more muscles and an (R) beside of his name?
Scott Ott: Don't you worry about that, John Hawkins...Arnold is going to clean house down there in Sacramento where all they do is tax, tax, tax, tax.
Madison "Moxie" Slade: Arnold is a good money manager, but Davis spent all our money. I'm not sure how he'll perform under the current financial situation.
Betsy Newmark: If he was able to demonstrate that a pro-business environment lifts all boats then that would be a worthy outcome.
Madison "Moxie" Slade: I can't understand most of what he says in his commercials, but he seems to have the right idea about bringing back business to California.
John Hawkins: Personally, I would rather Arnold lose if Davis and Bustamante weren't so horrible. I prefer to see Democrats in office rather than RINOS in general unless there's something crucial on the line, like control of the senate, or the war on terrorism.
Betsy Newmark: The thing is, could he get anything through the CA legislature? That's another reason to not pin your hopes on McClintock. He wouldn't be able to get anything done. He'd be blocked at every turn. So, what's the point of electing a conservative?
Madison "Moxie" Slade: That's true Betsy and one reason a moderate like Arnold might be able to succeed in office.
Scott Ott: I would rather see Capt. Davis on the bow of the sinking USS California.
Betsy Newmark: Schadenfreude about Davis would be fine if we weren't where we are now. But if Davis wins after all this, it will be an utter disaster.
John Hawkins: I think being a moderate might help Arnold get into office, but can he succeed?
Betsy Newmark: I think Arnold would be able to use his celebrity and muscle to get more done in office than we might think.
Scott Ott: It seems the only way a Republican can win in California is by being a Democrat.
Madison "Moxie" Slade: His politics are all over the map -- so he won't be as threatening to the left. I think he'd be able to get more things through than a conservative.
John Hawkins: California is in unbelievably bad shape and all the people who put it there -- except for the governor -- are going to still be in power.
Betsy Newmark: If he just blocked some of the giveaways and spending it would be a plus.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: I'm with Betsy...
John Hawkins: I'm not sure he seems inclined to block any spending and giveaways though. He seems to like those.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: Why does he want to be governor?
Betsy Newmark: I don't know. It sounds like a horrible job.
Scott Ott: I'm with Betsy...what kind of sicko wants that job?
Betsy Newmark: Did you catch Clinton in Iowa saying that Republicans are ruled by only by ideology while the Democrats are willing to scrap a bad idea if it doesn't work? Name one bad Dem. idea they've willingly scrapped?
Madison "Moxie" Slade: Al Gore?
John Hawkins: Heck, even Gore scrapped himself...
Madison "Moxie" Slade: That's the only example I could think of.
Betsy Newmark: And they wouldn't have scrapped him willingly, but for a few hundred FL voters.
Scott Ott: As soon as they have a bad idea, I'm sure they'll scrap it.
Betsy Newmark: And the list of bad Democratic ideas is almost without end.
John Hawkins: So if you're President Bush, do you think having Arnold in office makes it more or less likely to take California?
Scott Ott: Less.
Scott "The Big Trunk" Johnson: I don't see Bush taking California.
Betsy Newmark: Bush would only get CA if the election was a huge landslide. The governor won't make a difference.
Madison "Moxie" Slade: I agree. A good Republican Governor won't make much difference for Bush.
John Hawkins: If let's say California stays in Davis's hands or Bustamante gets in and the state stays in the toilet -- which I think is highly likely no matter who gets in -- do you think Bush will look better to Cali voters?
Madison "Moxie" Slade: John, this place is overflowing with lefties - I don't think Bush has a chance no matter what.
Betsy Newmark: Bush will never look better to CA voters. They're just the type who hate him more than Osama Bin Laden. And if Dean is the Dem. candidate, he'll really appeal to them.
Scott Ott: If Dean is the Dem candidate, Venus, Mars and Saturn go Democratic...CA goes Republican.
John Hawkins: Heheh...Well, that's it folks. Thanks for your time!
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