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PPP And Rasmussen Have Radically Different Poll Numbers. So, Who’s Right?

Written By : John Hawkins
April 13, 2011

Since partnering up with the Daily Kos, my impression is that PPP has gone the Zogby route and has started to let their ideology interfere with their poll numbers. Does that mean I generally don’t trust their numbers? Honestly — yeah, that’s exactly what it means.

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Of course, a lot of liberals would say the same thing about Rasmussen, which tends to poll to the right of other pollsters. Of course, they tend to have results to the right of other pollsters because they use likely voters, which I find to be the only meaningful group of voters to look at on political issues.

In any case, here are the results of both polls, which could not be much farther apart.

First, here’s PPP release from yesterday with a poll of registered voters.

As a consequence, if an election were held today, Americans would vote for the Democrat in their district by a 46-41 margin. The two parties are polarized, but independents split the tie, siding 42-33 with the Democrats after voting heavily for the GOP last year.

Now here’s Rasmussen’s data from Monday, which is based on a poll of Likely voters.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters nationwide say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead.

That’s an 11 point spread. Who’s closer to the truth? If I had to bet, I’d say Rasmussen. Now, which one will get the most publicity? If I had to bet, I’d say PPP.

Time will tell on both counts.

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