Last night, a relatively non-political friend of mine asked me what was happening with the election. Here's what I told her, edited slightly to clean it up.

Anon: What's up? I saw some of your recent posts, John :) ...I was curious as to how you think the election is going.

John Hawkins: It's a toss-up at the moment.

Anon: That's what I'm thinking -- though the Dem's seem worried Obama may have peaked too soon. Question is did he peak too soon or will he continue to go strong?

John Hawkins: Traditionally, Democrats do a little better this time of the year and then Republicans pick up steam from the summer on.

Well, what is happening is that the election is turning into a referendum on Barack. Is he ready to lead? Is he experienced enough to lead? Does he have the judgment? Is he clear about what he is going to do? Etc. And so far, he doesn't seem up to the task.

In a normal year, where the field wasn't slanted so heavily towards the Dems, McCain would absolutely annihilate Barack in a landslide. Obama is actually a very weak candidate. Only in an environment like this can he stay even.

Anon: And he has a lot of people who are backing him.

John Hawkins: He does, but -- and this is a big but -- he ran as an idealist and then when he got the nomination, he immediately tacked way over to the center on a lot of his agenda. That turns off a lot of his supporters and it's disturbing to the general public because as is, he pretty much has no record. So how can they know what he would do when he gets into office?