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January 15, 2008
John Hawkins Giving The Devil His Due: John McCain's Head-To-Head Polling Numbers

Although I'm certainly not a fan of John McCain, in the interests of fairness, I do think I should point out that his head-to-head polling numbers vs. Obama and in particular, against Hillary, are really good.

From SurveyUSA (Which should have polled Fred Thompson's numbers as well, but didn't),

First of all, from Missouri, a state Bush carried by 7 points in 2004,

Giuliani 43%
Clinton 47%

Giuliani 44%
Obama 47%

Romney 42%
Clinton 49%

Romney 43%
Obama 48%

Huckabee 47%
Clinton 45%

Huckabee 51%
Obama 41%

McCain 50%
Clinton 44%

McCain 51%
Obama 41%

Next up is Washington, a state Kerry won by 7 points in 2004,

Giuliani 38%
Clinton 51%

Giuliani 35%
Obama 57%

Romney 38%
Clinton 54%

Romney 32%
Obama 63%

Huckabee 40%
Clinton 54%

Huckabee 35%
Obama 60%

McCain 49%
Clinton 46%

McCain 43%
Obama 52%

Next is Oregon, a state Kerry won by 4 points in 2004,

Giuliani 39%
Clinton 52%

Giuliani 35%
Obama 56%

Romney 34%
Clinton 57%

Romney 32%
Obama 63%

Huckabee 38%
Clinton 55%

Huckabee 35%
Obama 60%

McCain 49%
Clinton 45%

McCain 47%
Obama 47%

I admit that I am not a fan of John McCain and also that numbers can change a lot over the course of the campaign, but I do have to at least say that at the moment, McCain looks to be several orders of magnitude stronger than the other Republican candidates.

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Comments (50)
And we all believe in polls, don't we? Seriously, a poll like this so far in advance of the actual election might as well have simply asked "Of the following names, which people have you heard of before today?" Because that's all it is at this point -- a name recognition poll. If they'd asked "Will you vote for the person who wants to give amnesty to illegal aliens and who took away your free speech rights, or the person who will raise taxes and use it to give you government-run health care?" the pollsters would have been laughed at.
Posted by CavalierX
January 15, 2008 9:55 AM

You seem to be forgetting that both Washington and Oregon are on the Left Coast, Cav. Hell, if the pollsters' question had been as honest as the one you posed, McCain's numbers would've actually increased!
This kind of info is terrible for Giuliani. His big draw was supposed to be his "electability" and ability to beat Hillary. He's faded very badly nationally and these numbers aren't going to get anybody back on board.

Say what you will about McCain, but he's got the most credibility of anybody running on spending and defense. He's also got the ability to pull in crossovers that no other Republican does. At the moment he has to be given credit with the conservative base as well since he's leading national Republican polling as well and basically running away with SC.
Hell, if the pollsters' question had been as honest as the one you posed, McCain's numbers would've actually increased!


Even most big Lefties, even on the Left Coast, don't want their own taxes raised, nor do they want to have to accept government health care themselves. Those things are fine for other people, the "masses." Can you see Barbra Streisand sitting in a crowded grey, cheerless government waiting room waiting for an overworked grey, cheerless government doctor? Nooooo.
Polls in leftists states favor mccaineddy, SUPRISE!!

Can't we sell commiefornia,really it is oregon o, and wershingtoon to Canada, for some cheese and a molson?
And we all believe in polls, don't we? Seriously, a poll like this so far in advance of the actual election might as well have simply asked "Of the following names, which people have you heard of before today?" Because that's all it is at this point -- a name recognition poll. If they'd asked "Will you vote for the person who wants to give amnesty to illegal aliens and who took away your free speech rights, or the person who will raise taxes and use it to give you government-run health care?" the pollsters would have been laughed at.


I think there ought to be some sort of test or questionnaire when they take these polls. If someone says they support McCain, they should have to justify that answer by explaining why they support McCain.
I think there ought to be some sort of test or questionnaire when they take these polls. If someone says they support McCain, they should have to justify that answer by explaining why they support McCain.


Polls, hell. Maybe we ought to make the vote a short-answer essay test.
Polls, hell. Maybe we ought to make the vote a short-answer essay test.

Posted by CavalierX
January 15, 2008 10:22 AM

But that would be unfair to the demoncrites, you know that most illegals can't read and write English.
If the POLLS(!) are even remotely close to being within its 50 percent margin of error, I don't McCain by himself stacks up against Obama; especially when McCain won't have Conservative support.
paulbots wanting to know why they didn't poll spaceballs number in 5 ... 4 .. 3
I don't think McCain by himself....that's what I meant to post.
I'll just preempt all the anti-McCain reactions to this so that people don't have to type them out themselves.

#1) Polls are meaningless. Nevermind that most of them correctly predicted the last Presidential election http://emilyd.org/DrudgeArchive_files/polls.html">to within 1% of the final outcome. There was this one time in New Hampshire when all the Democratic primary voters lied and said they were supporting the black guy because they wanted to look PC. And that proves polls are a crapshoot.

#2. This is just gibberish. There's no such thing as "polls." This must be some kind of mistake.

#3. Insert irritating Chuck Norris-ism and replace "Chuck Norris" with "Fred Thompson." Assert that Thompson will win. Do not justify it with anything.

#4. Okay, now this is just someone pulling a prank on me. I'm not falling for this one. "John McCain?" There's no one in the race named that. There's Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, Rudy Giuliani, Barry Goldwater, Ron Paul, Edmund Burke, Michael Oakeshott, Thomas Jefferson, Jim Rice, Batista, and Ron Paul. Nope, no McCain.

#5. Who cares about electability? "It's not whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game." Yep, Vince Lombardi said that. Wait, what? Lombardi didn't say that? Who the hell's Grantland Rice? And he was talking about God judging our life on Earth? Oh shit. Well the analogy still works.

#6. If you're a liberal, just say that war-mongering fascist authoritarian anti-minority anti-women anti-candyland Republicans don't stand a chance againt whoever the Democrats nominate. Try to squeeze in as many unoriginal ad homs as possible, while being careful not to utilize correct grammar or spelling. Preferably, do not respond when people start making fun of you. Or if you do feel a need to respond, skirt as much substantive criticism as possible and move on to the other two things you learned about from reading Kos.
Did the main stream media put you up to this trash? Polls are worthless. Once they see how bad McCain is at leading and giving speeches, and who knows what will come up between now and then with the candidates - opinions will change.
Posted by maledicta
January 15, 2008 10:38 AM

Dang, mal, you're kind of being a wet-blanket there, ain'tcha?
I'm wondering where in Missouri they took that poll: St. Louis?

Although the "supposedly" conservative afternoon local talk show did an informal survey of their listeners and foudn them to fall between McCain and Giuliani on the spectrum. I attribute this mainly to the fact that it was A.) very informal - call in and we'll ask you the next question on our list and B.) the more vocal of the two hosts is more a so-called "moderate" (read RINO) than he is a true conservative. That will attract that type of listener.
This kind of info is terrible for Giuliani. His big draw was supposed to be his "electability" and ability to beat Hillary. He's faded very badly nationally and these numbers aren't going to get anybody back on board. -Mike_M


Ha. This could be a new political term, like "Borking", in the making. Wouldn't that be fun?

Coasting through the first several states of the primary process thinking that your name recognition and earlier positive press would carry you to victory: Rudistic campaigning.
Posted by maledicta
January 15, 2008 10:38 AM

Now I know you are being fecisous. Thomas Jefferson dropped out long ago because of the pounding he took in new hampshire by ron paul and delta burke.

Do you suppose mcaineddy stayed awake long enough for the poll to finish?
Pointing out that McCain is polling real well against Shrillery is akin to saying Mookie Al Sadr polls real well against Bin Laden.

Doesn't exactly get my juices flowing.

I say if we have this as a choice, it would be better to just do the full monty and make sure that the impending disasters that come will surely pinned on the opposing party.

At least if Hillery proposes a fairness doctrine law we can count on the Republicans to fight it tooth and nail. When McCain proposes it, half the Republicans will fall in line.

At that point we will have no one to point fingers at but ourselves.
Yeah right... The second coming of Bob Dole -- only with greater negatives, acrimony, and estrangement from the GOP base of supporters than Dole ever had to contend with -- is going to beat the Democrats. Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.
McCains ability to pull in crossover voters is the REASON conservatives hate him. If Hillary or Obama get in, at least the Republican party can unite to fight their agenda.

It will be much more difficult to fight the liberal agenda if McCain was pushing it from the White House.

Secondly, look at the polls in NH. They were way off. A conservative candidate will increase Republican turn out. Polls 11 months in advance are more worthless than those taken days before.

We need Thompson, not McCain or Huckabee. Thompson should stick it out to the end in the hopes of a brokered convention.
"I say if we have this as a choice, it would be better to just do the full monty and make sure that the impending disasters that come will surely pinned on the opposing party."

No thanks. If you want to let the Islamists saw off your head to spite your face, be my guest.

With McCain we might get some undesirable big government programs. With Hillary or Obama we get massive tax hikes, runaway spending, total surrender on the war, and citizenship anmesty with no border conrtol.

Throwing the election because you're losing maybe 5-10% of the conservative adgenda is asinine.
Hmmm. Would you also consider it asinine to give amnesty to 12 million future Democrats?
McCain is a good man and a good candidate.

He's getting a bum rap because he won't tow the party line.

Better to win with McCain than lose.
To all you conservatives (me 2) a no vote for McCain will help Obama or Clinton get elected.

Not only will you have a problem with bad policy on illegal immigration you will get bad foreign policy including surrender on the war on terror.

THINK ABOUT IT!

A no vote is a surrender vote for WOT.


We are never going to get 100% of what we want, but we will do better with McCain then with either Democrat.

This is based on the (too early) assumption that McCain gets the nomination.

This is based on the (too early) assumption that McCain gets the nomination.


Thanks for including that disclaimer.
People are acting like the Rep. nomination is all sewn up already. Sheesh, we've still got a long road ahead of us and things can change in an instant.
Heck, a lot of folks act like they don't remember that only a couple of months ago McCain was all but done for.
Yes, the field is still wide open for Reps. Which can be a good thing, or a bad thing. You all could end up with Rudy.
Perhaps you meant "ad homonym", while being careful not to utilize correct spelling.


And perhaps you meant "ad hominem," while being careful not to utilise correct spelling.
You all could end up with Rudy.


*shudder* Bite your tongue!
Polls, schmolls.
Perhaps you meant "ad homonym", while being careful not to utilize correct spelling.


Look, children. Irony.
"Hmmm. Would you also consider it asinine to give amnesty to 12 million future Democrats?"

I'll trade the Z-visa for border security at this point. We got jack squat with a Republican President and GOP Congress, and it doesn't look like the Dems are going to lose power this year. If the base is so fired up about amnesty, why is the guy with the most credible immigration plan barely pulling double digits (Fred)? That's a disconnect I have yet to see an explanation for.

If you're referring to the Rube-Goldbergian "path to citizenship" proposed in the much-maligned Amnesty Bill, I would be utterly shocked if even a million illegals pulled it off over the next decade. Fines, back taxes, voluntarially leaving the country...seriously?

The base was suckered by the conservative media on this issue, I'm becoming more convinced of it all the time. Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck merrily led the charge against the amnesty bill and watched their ratings rise along with the outrage, but when it came time to do the heavily lifting of actually solving the problem, they just walked away. No more calling campaigns, no more demands, no more pressure, nothing. The end result was that they ensured that Congress won't want to go anywhere near the issue, so as a result we still have no fence, no enforcement, and no solutions.

Even if Fred wins it all, it's unrealistic to think that he's going to get his entire border and immigration plan through Congress as written. Compromises will be made. Even Reagan had to do it, and his Democrat Congress was far more moderate than what it is now. An absolutist solution simply isn't going to happen, so I at least want someone that can take *some* kind of positive action.
Posted by D-Vega
January 15, 2008 12:51 PM

Vega Please!!! we don't use that kind of language on this board.
Again, Mike, very good.

You should come over to the dark side, where we could use your skills to their full potential.

It is very nice on this side. We have marijuana, hot women and free Che Guevara T-Shirts/Mugs.
Mike M, so much to criticize and only so much time. I'll stick to one point...

"If you're referring to the Rube-Goldbergian "path to citizenship" proposed in the much-maligned Amnesty Bill, I would be utterly shocked if even a million illegals pulled it off over the next decade. Fines, back taxes, voluntarially leaving the country...seriously?"

Who cares about citizenship? I don't and I would imagine that the vast majority of the illegals don't either. It's all about LEGAL RESIDENCE -- the Senate amnesty bill granted this almost immediately and irrevocably. Citizenship has very few advantages and benefits to legal residence. In fact I can only think of one - voting. Voting is something that some illegals already do now anyway, and pretty soon the Democrats will find a way to either give the illegals legitimate voting rights or make it impossible to qualify one's citizenship for voting purposes.

The amnesty bill and John McCain are wrong because it allows untold millions of desperately poor uneducated illegals to stay in our country permanently and with full legal status; not because of the citizenship requirements.




If you're referring to the Rube-Goldbergian "path to citizenship" proposed in the much-maligned Amnesty Bill, I would be utterly shocked if even a million illegals pulled it off over the next decade. Fines, back taxes, voluntarially leaving the country...seriously?

If that McCain amnesty mess ever gets passed (which it surely will under almost any candidate currently running but Thompson and Hunter), there will be a mad dash not for the border, but for the nearest immigration lawyer... who will in turn rush to the nearest judge to have that part overturned as imposing an "undue hardship."
If you're referring to the Rube-Goldbergian "path to citizenship" proposed in the much-maligned Amnesty Bill, I would be utterly shocked if even a million illegals pulled it off over the next decade. Fines, back taxes, voluntarially leaving the country...seriously?


If that McCain amnesty mess ever gets passed (which it surely will under almost any candidate currently running but Thompson and Hunter), there will be a mad dash not for the border, but for the nearest immigration lawyer... who will in turn rush to the nearest judge to have that part overturned as imposing an "undue hardship."
An absolutist solution simply isn't going to happen, so I at least want someone that can take *some* kind of positive action.


I can understand your view, Mike. But I, personally, don't believe that Mr. McCain, with his history of championing amnesty, intends to do a thing to secure the border in any significant way. It is my humble opinion that he is merely pandering for votes because he knows precisely how unpopular his stance is.
And if he is elected, we've learned that the President can make a show of signing legislation aimed at staunching the flow of illegals into law, only to have it undermined/gutted. The Secure Fence Act ring any bells?
Mike is astute about one thing: Hannity and Limbaugh (and Olberman, Coulter, and their ilk) exist for one thing - their own personal ratings and glory, which of course translate into $$ for them.

Getting all ramped up and indignant and steamy is just their schitck. Is that the way you spell schitck? Cause I'm not sure.

In any case, I never get too much heartburn about any of the so-called talking heads. It's just their job, their livelihood.
"And if he is elected, we've learned that the President can make a show of signing legislation aimed at staunching the flow of illegals into law, only to have it undermined/gutted. The Secure Fence Act ring any bells?"

The SFA was cosponsored by Hunter and Tancredo, and voted on by both as well as McCain. In addition, the Homeland Security Appropriation Bill that stripped the SFA of specific funding was also voted on by Hunter, Tancredo, and McCain.

If the Secure Fence Act is now the measuring stick for immigration, *nobody* makes the cut. Nobody.

If Tancredo is now to the left of the acceptable conservative position on border control, you're living in a dreamworld.
"It is very nice on this side. We have marijuana, hot women and free Che Guevara T-Shirts/Mugs."

Thanks Vega, but therein lies the problem. I'm entirely anti-drug, married, and despise the Marxist barbarian Ernesto Guevara with a burning passion.

What I'm really after is an ounce of action on any of several alarmingly critical issues facing the country, but apparently budging a millimeter from the party line in order to get things done is completely unacceptable. So I'm a moderate or a liberal or something now. Whatever.

but apparently budging a millimeter from the party line in order to get things done is completely unacceptable. So I'm a moderate or a liberal or something now. Whatever.

Posted by Mike_M
January 15, 2008 7:22 PM |

The problem with mcaineddy is that he keeps hopping into bed with the extreme left. He is not negotiating a resonable compromise with the intellegent people in the senate, nor the "blue dog" democrats. He is co-sponsoring bills with schumer, keneddy, and fiendghould.
Blue elephants are for the Star Wars films, not the U.S. Senate.
What I'm really after is an ounce of action on any of several alarmingly critical issues facing the country, but apparently budging a millimeter from the party line in order to get things done is completely unacceptable. So I'm a moderate or a liberal or something now. Whatever.


Still, there's an argument to be made that, if a candidate is willing to compromise on one issue, he's willing to compromise on other issues (perhaps even one of those "several alarmingly crucial issues") as well.

Just sayin...
"Still, there's an argument to be made that, if a candidate is willing to compromise on one issue, he's willing to compromise on other issues (perhaps even one of those "several alarmingly crucial issues") as well."

Like Reagan expanding the cabinet, bailing out and expanding Social Security, and jacking up corporate taxes...in addition to amnesty?

Sure, argue away. Just don't expect to find anybody to vote for when you're finished. Guess the entire conservative base is just going to have to stay home because there's no Conservative Jesus who can throw out all the illegals and balance the budget between walking on water and beating Chuck Norris in a staring contest.
What I'm really after is an ounce of action on any of several alarmingly critical issues facing the country, but apparently budging a millimeter from the party line in order to get things done is completely unacceptable. So I'm a moderate or a liberal or something now.


That's why some liberals like McCain.
Liberals like McCain because he tends to do exactly what they want him to. I'd have less problem with it if I felt like he bargained for a compromise in the wash, but since I've seen absolutely nothing in any of his so-called bi-partisan actions that makes me even the tiniest bit happy, and most of the left is pretty genuinely happy about it, I'd say that the compromise isn't entirely fair. I should be partially happy and you should be partially happy about it. No one wins and no one loses.
He's never been pro-choice, as far as I know.
Mike,

I've always considered myself a moderate, able to see both sides of most any issue. But after posting here and reading some of the comments, I'm pretty certain that I'm considered a pinko commie librul in this crowd. So don't feel bad, welcome to the librul crowd. Like Vega said, it's not so bad, the girls are hotter and the gays hardly even bother me, lol.

In all seriousness, something I've never understood is this: how do gay people affect my "family values"? If I'm walking on the beach with my wife and I see a couple gay dudes, it doesn't bother us. It doesn't affect us one way or the other, good or bad. I've never understood how it is that gay people negatively affect me and my family (for the record, married for 24 years, two kids, one in the 101st Airborne for his second tour of Iraq).

Is their "gayness" going to somehow rub off on me or my wife, lol?
If the Secure Fence Act is now the measuring stick for immigration, *nobody* makes the cut. Nobody.


Though I cannot argue with the quote above, you seem to have missed my point entirely, Mike.
I wasn't blaming Mr. McCain for the undermining of the SFA, in any form or fashion.
I was simply pointing out that, in light of what has become of the SFA, it is easier now for a candidate who is pro-amnesty (which, IMhO, makes them pro-illegal immigration by default) to talk tough about securing the border knowing that nothing significant will come of it.
how do gay people affect my "family values"? If I'm walking on the beach with my wife and I see a couple gay dudes, it doesn't bother us.


This is the thing people like you never seem to understand: the world does not revolve around you. You are, I presume, an adult and have already formed your general attitudes, preferences and perceptions for the most part. But those still learning, and those not yet born, have not. If they grow up in a world where marriage means "a temporary living/sexual arrangement among a group of people regardless of the size of the group or the sexes of the participants," then will marriage really mean anything at all to them when they become adults? Marriage being the fundamental building block of all successful human relationships to date -- from Neanderthal foraging groups based on family relationships to a tool for making war or peace between whole nations -- is it really something you want to change so drastically, so quickly, so randomly, and against the express will of a majority of the American people? And for what -- a tiny fraction of small percentage of the populace who feel they have the right to change everyone else's definition of marriage to suit their own atypical lifestyle just so they don't feel as different from the norm as they actually are?
"Marriage being the fundamental building block of all successful human relationships to date"

...should have said "Marriage and family relationships being the fundamental building block of all successful human relationships to date"
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