Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's currently happening with the Senate immigration bill (You can see my two previous reports from this source here and here).
To begin with, the key thing to keep in mind about the upcoming vote on the Senate immigration bill is that the pro-amnesty forces have two key cloture votes that they have to win.
The first is the vote on the so-called "clay pigeon" strategy. What this does is take the original bill and all of its amendments and reintroduce it on the Senate floor as a new bill. There are two reasons for doing this. The first is to prevent killer amendments that could upset the "grand compromise" from being voted on. The second reason is procedural, because it keeps conservative senators who are opposed to the bill from being able to slow up the process.
However, in order for the bill and the previous amendments to be offered on the floor of the Senate as a new bill, it will take the cooperation of both Democratic and Republican leadership, along with 60 votes for cloture.
The conventional wisdom has been that this first cloture vote is a done deal because the Senate leadership has been wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. The way it works is that they go to a senator and offer to allow a vote on their Amendment IF -- and only if -- that senator agrees to vote for cloture on the "clay pigeon" strategy.
My source tells me that this has left a sour taste in the mouth of a number of Republican senators who are upset that Mitch McConnell is cooperating with Harry Reid to curtail the rights of Republican senators. Moreover, there's a growing fear that a dangerous precedent is being set here that could be used against Republican senators again and again as long as they're in the minority. After all, if the "clay pigeon" strategy is used against conservatives on the immigration issue, who's to say it won't also be used against them on any number of issues in the future? According to my source, this is causing a lot of nervousness amongst Republican senators and it has Mitch McConnell acting very defensively behind closed doors about working with Harry Reid to roll members of his own caucus. Because of this issue, my source tells me that the vote for the "clay pigeon" strategy is no longer a slam dunk and it is possible that the "grand bargainers" may not be able to get 60 votes to put the bill on the floor as a new bill. If that turns out to be the case, the bill is dead.
Then, if the bill does make it to the floor, there will be 22 amendments offered. These amendments have been carefully selected by the combined Democratic/Republican leadership to try to make sure that no deal breakers can make it through. Still, my source tells me that every amendment has the potential to be problematic for the grand bargainers, because the vote count is very close. If certain amendments pass, it could cost votes. On the other hand, some senators may very well decide not to vote for the bill if their amendments don't pass. But, once the votes on the amendments are through, there will be another key vote for cloture and whether it will get the 60 votes is anyone's guess at this point.
Then, of course, if they do get the 60 votes for cloture, there will be a final vote for the bill, but since only 50 votes are needed, it will be almost guaranteed to pass.
Summary: My source tells me that he thought the amnesty proponents definitely had the upper hand last week, but now, he thinks the momentum may be swinging back the other way. He also said that he thinks the best chance to stop the bill will be on the initial cloture vote. He said that he's hoping that a coalition of conservatives who think this is a bad bill, liberals who think this bill is too tough, and Republican senators worried about losing minority rights because of the "clay pigeon" strategy will get together and block the bill. If that doesn't happen, the pro-amnesty side won't have won, but the odds will shift a bit more in their favor.
PS #1: I pointed out that John Edwards and Claire McCaskill have made some extremely negative comments about the bill and asked my source if it's possible that Democratic opposition could increase enough to kill the bill. He said it was possible, but he thought Harry Reid was capable of strong arming the Democrats enough to keep them from losing many votes. Of course, he also added that he's not sure that Harry Reid really wants to see this bill pass, so he's not sure how hard he would fight for it. Either way, he said not to count on the Democrats to finish off the bill.
PS #2: I asked him about Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss announcing that they will vote against cloture. My source's take was that it wasn't a bill killer, but that it was significant since both of them were prominent early supporters of the bill. He added that he thought their switch was indicative of the pressure Republicans are feeling at the grass roots level and he said that he thought Isakson and Chambliss deserved credit for paying attention to it while a lot of pro-amnesty supporters have tuned it out or even shut off their answering machines because they're tired of hearing their constituents complain about this issue.
PS #3: Last but not least, I talked to my source about the shots Trent Lott and Lindsey Graham have taken at people opposed to the bill. My source replied that when this whole thing started, these guys were cocky and thought they'd get this bill through with 70 votes, no problem. But now, because of the blogs and talk radio, they've lost the public debate on the issue and they know it. So, at this point, they're way out on a limb supporting a wildly unpopular bill that may or may not pass, and they're lashing out in frustration. He added that a lot of Republican senators have been offended and embarrassed by their comments and are worried that the voters will lump them in with Graham and Lott.
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If the Senators retaliate with a bill to reintroduce "The Fairness Doctrine", it may be time for us to start a petition to dissolve the Senate and convene an election for all 100 slots - FRESH!
Posted by Rose
June 22, 2007 3:39 AM |
R or D, vote them ALL out.
Posted by DoubleU
June 22, 2007 5:46 AM |
Republican Senators worried about losing minority rights because of the "clay pigeon" strategy
So let me get this straight. Mass public disapproval of the amnesty bill doesn't budge them, but a threat to their power gets them of their fat asses as though their seats were on fire? Man, I really want their names.
Posted by CavalierX
June 22, 2007 6:15 AM |
Trent "You-expect-ME-to-eat-at-McDonald's?!" Lott stated that he was unconcerned about the negative calls his office had received since most of them originated from outside Mississippi.
Because he is minority whip, 2nd in command of the Senate GOP'ers, he damn well better be listening to anyone who calls his office. If he really feels that he can disregard anyone not from Mississippi, it's long past time for him to step down or be removed from his position as minority whip.
Posted by Cartman
June 22, 2007 7:24 AM |
"He added that a lot of Republican Senators have been offended and embarrassed by their comments and are worried that the voters will lump them in with Graham and Lott"
Only if they vote for cloture and then they will surely be attached by name with the two traitors named above. That Trent Lott we are going to have to do something about him, first this amnesty bill and then threatning talk radio this idiot is out of control.
Posted by Jaded
June 22, 2007 7:28 AM |
I think the only thing that can save the Senate now is a big lightsaber duel between Bush and Harry Reid.
Then again, they're on the same side on this issue. We're probably all screwed.
Posted by Mike_M
June 22, 2007 10:03 AM |
Ho-hum.
Posted by huckupchuck
June 22, 2007 10:15 AM |
Try not to be a jackass, huck. Then again, you probably are trying.
Posted by CavalierX
June 22, 2007 10:25 AM |
Ho-hum.
Posted by huckupchuck
June 22, 2007 10:15 AM |
**********
Now, strap on your patent leather tap shoes and goose-setp back over to KOS.
Posted by Cartman
June 22, 2007 10:34 AM |
Hmmmm.
After months of this nonsense these senators are worried about being "lumped in"??
Frankly I'd suggest that they are far far past that stage considering how pissed off people are. Such as Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Does she really deserve kudos for not voting for cloture? Or does she deserve a big boot in the ass because it took her months to figure out that her constituents are pissed off about her position on the bill?
I'd think the latter.
Posted by memomachine
June 22, 2007 11:08 AM |
Does anyone else get pissed off listening to M-E-D-"V as in vanity"-E-D talk about this bill? Why is it that usually normal-headed republicans that know enforcing preexisting laws is more important than creating new laws that will be rendered unenforceable, are now completely on the other side of conservative principles. What's your theory?
Posted by Ipwnallah
June 22, 2007 11:13 AM |
Posted by Ipwnallah
June 22, 2007 11:13 AM |
I haven't heard Medved talk about it, but I've heard he's for the bill, which is sort of surprising and yes, I'm getting kind of nervous about the way supposedly "conservative" Congressmen are acting over this. Makes me wonder if some of the claims I've heard, not only of a NAU but other interesting things which I'll not go into here, might be true. It's troubling, to say the least.
Posted by DCS
June 22, 2007 11:24 AM |
Here's an interesting chain email making the rounds... any thoughts if there is these are even real quotes, or is it just anti-illegal immigration stuff made up to push that point of view?
Subject: FW: You old white people. It is your duty to die
It's obvious that some Americans don't want to believe this - - but maybe it is time you take a look at what is happening to OUR country. . . .
"You old white people. It is your duty to die."
HISPANIC LEADERS SPEAK OUT!
"Go back to Boston ! Go back to Plymouth Rock, Pilgrims! Get out! We are the future. You are old and tired. Go on. We have beaten you. Leave like beaten rats. You old white people. It is your duty to die . Through love of having children, we are going to take over. Augustin Cebada, Brown Berets:
"They're afraid we're going to take over the governmental institutions and other institutions. They're right. We will take them over . . . We are here to stay." Richard Alatorre, Los Angeles City Council.
"The American Southwest seems to be slowly returning to the jurisdiction of Mexico without firing a single shot." Excelsior, the national newspaper of Mexico :
"We have an aging white America . They are not making babies. They are dying. The explosion is in our population . .. I love it. They are shitting in their pants with fear. I love it." Professor Jose Angel Gutierrez, University of Texas
"Remember 187--proposition to deny taxpayer funds for services to non-citizens--was the last gasp of white America in California ." Art Torres, Chairman of the California Democratic Party, !!!
"We are politicizing every single one of these new citizens that are becoming citizens of this country . . . I gotta tell you that a lot of people are saying, "I'm going to go out there and vote because I want to pay them back." Gloria Molina, Los Angeles County Supervisor, !!!
" California is going to be a Hispanic state. Anyone who doesn't like it should leave." Mario Obledo, California Coalition of Hispanic Organizations and California State Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare under Governor Jerry Brown, also awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Bill Clinton
"We are practicing 'La Reconquista' in California " Jose Pescador Osuna, Mexican Consul General ,
"We need to avoid a white backlash by using codes understood by Latinos . . . " Professor Fernando Guerra, Loyola Marymount University
Are these just the words of a few extremists?? Consider that we could fill up many pages with such quotes. Also, consider that these are mainstream Mexican leaders.
THE U.S. VS MEXICO : On February 15, 1998, the U.S. and Mexican soccer teams met at the Los Angeles Coliseum. The crowd was overwhelmingly pro-Mexican even though most lived in this country. They booed during the National Anthem and U.S. flags were held upside down. As the match progressed, supporters of the U.S. team were insulted, pelted with projectiles, punched and spat upon. Beer and trash were thrown at the U.S. players before and after the match. The coach of the U.S. team, Steve Sampson said, "This was the most painful experience I have ever had in this profession."
Did you know that immigrants from Mexico and other non-European countries can come to this country and get preferences in jobs, education, and government contracts?
Corporate America has signed on to the idea that minorities and third world immigrants should get special, privileged status. Some examples are Exxon,Texaco, Merrill Lynch, Boeing, Paine Weber, Starbucks and many more. Wake up Americans.
DID YOU KNOW?: Did you know that Mexico regularly intercedes on the side of the defense in criminal cases involving Mexican nationals? Did you know that Mexico has NEVER extradited a Mexican national accused of murder in the U.S. in spite of agreements to do so?
According to the L.A. Times, Orange County , California is home to 275+ gangs with 17,000 members; 98% of which are Mexican and Asian. How's your county doing?
Is education important to you? Here are the words of a teacher who spent over 20 years in the Los Angeles School system. "Imagine teachers in classes containing 30-40 students of widely varying attention spans and motivation, many of whom aren't fluent in English. Educators seek learning materials likely to reach the majority of students and that means fewer words and math problems and more pictures and multicultural references."
WHEN I WAS YOUNG: When I was young, I remember hearing about the immigrants that came through Ellis Island . They wanted to learn English. They wanted to breath free. They wanted to become Americans.
We welcome legal immigrants who come to this country the right way!!
Now too many immigrants come here with demands. They demand to be taught in their own language. They demand special privileges--affirmative action. They demand ethnic studies that glorify their culture.
HOW CAN YOU HELP?: Send copies of this letter to at least two other people, 100 would be even better. Help us get the word out.
Be aware of what is happening
around you!
For more information and to verify the above statements, go to : http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/hispanic.asp
Posted by CoolCzech
June 22, 2007 11:36 AM |
"What's your theory?"
I don't listen to Medved. Now I know why.
Posted by Mike_M
June 22, 2007 11:39 AM |