After Wednesday night’s smashing debate victory for Mitt Romney, we may expect the national and swing state polls to change in the Republican’s direction. But not by as much as they should. These polls are biased in favor of President Obama and here’s the data to prove it:
From noted Republican pollster John McLaughlin comes a clear and convincing exposŽ of the bias of media polls in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
McLaughlin reviewed exit polls in each state for the past four elections. From this data about who actually voted, he found that the party divisions manifest on election day have little to do with the samples upon which the media is basing its polling. And, coincidentally, it is always the Republican vote that tends to be undercounted.
In Florida, for example, McLaughlin finds that the average of the last four elections produced a turnout of 37 percent Democrats and 38 percent Republicans. But here is the partisan distribution of the most recent Florida media polls:
9-26 CBS/NY Times: 36% Dem 27% Rep
9-23 Wash Post 35% Dem 29% Rep
So the media polls reflect a 9 point and six point Democratic edge even though the actual experience of the past four elections has been a 1 point Republican advantage.
Things are no better in Ohio. Here, McLaughlin finds a 2 point Democratic edge in the past four elections (38 percent Democrat, 36 percent Republican). But the media polls show vastly more Democrats and fewer Republicans in their samples:
9-26 CBS/NYTimes 35 percent Dem 26 percent Rep
9-23 Wash Post 35 percent Dem 27 percent Rep
9-11 NBC/WSJ 38 percent Dem 28 percent Rep
Once again, the measured vote of exit polls in Ohio shows a 2 point Democratic edge, but the polls reflect Democratic advantages of 9 points, 8 points, and 10 points respectively.
In Virginia, it’s the same story. The last four elections have a combined 1 point Republican edge, 37 percent to 36 percent. But the media polls show a big pro-Democratic bias:
10/2 Roanoke College Dem 36 percent Rep 27 percent
9/17 CBS/NYTimes Dem 35 percent Rep 26 percent
9/16 Washington Post Dem 35 percent Rep 24 percent
9/11 NBC/Wall St Journal Dem 31 percent Rep 26 percent
So instead of showing a 1 point Republican edge, these media poll samples show Democratic advantages of nine, nine, 11 and five.
The correct conclusion to draw from these polls is that Romney is comfortably ahead in Virginia and Florida while he holds a slight lead in Ohio. And, remember these polls are all pre-debate!
Bear in mind that the undecided vote in all of these polls usually goes against the incumbent.
That’s the real story.