Interesting: New Paper Blames 17 Year Pause On Low Solar Activity


Surprisingly, this is one of the few papers that actually makes sense, to a degree (via Watts Up With That?)

Reduced Solar Activity Disguises Global Temperature Rise
DOI: 10.4236/acs.2014.41008 Author: Peter Stauning

ABSTRACT

The question whether human activities seriously affect climate is asked with increasing voice these days. Quite understandable since the climate appears to be out of control with the significant global temperature increases already seen during the last three decades and with still heavier temperature increases to come in the future according to prognoses, among others, in the recent comprehensive IPCC reports [1].

However, the most recent climate data [2], show global temperature development levelling off or even turning negative since 2001 in contrast to the anticipated course related to the steady increases in the concentration in the atmosphere of green-house gasses, primarily carbon dioxide and methane [1]. The purpose of this communication is to demonstrate that the reduced rate in the global temperature rise complies with expectations related to the decaying level of solar activity according to the relation published in an earlier analysis [3]. Without the reduction in the solar activity-related contributions the global temperatures would have increased steadily from 1980 to present.

Interestingly, the paper seems to blame the warming on anthropogenic causation, but the pause, and flat and even declining 21st Century temps on natural causes. As Marc Morano notes, this is the 5th Warmist explanation for the pause, which includes

  • Chinese coal use
  • The Montreal Protocol
  • Readjusting past temperatures artificially to claim no pause has occurred
  • And my favorite, the heat is doing a Where’s Waldo? in the deep oceans.

Or, it could be El Ninja, as Anthony Watts points out

I’m also more than a little bit puzzled how the journal editor and the peer reviewers let this sentence pass, everybody makes typos, but this one takes the cake. I kid you not:

But secondly, there must be a fair global coverage such that localized climate variations like the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), or the El Ninjo/La Ninja in the Pacific would not affect the result too much.

Yes, I really want to see what the La Ninja effect looks like.

Me too. Anyhow, here’s the paper conclusion

The decaying solar activity makes the recently recorded global temperatures flatten out and thus disguises the real climate development. With a steady level of cycle-average solar activity the global temperatures would have shown a steady rise from 1980 to present (2013) in agreement with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of green-house gasses, primarily carbon dioxide and methane [16], and not the levelling-off actually observed since 2001.

The solar activity is now at the lowest level seen in the past 100 years and could not go much lower. Thus, the observed global temperatures may soon resume the steady rise observed from around 1980 to 2001. If solar activity starts increasing then the global temperatures may rise even steeper than that seen over the past three decades.

I see what you did there. Blame nature for the pause, saying it is masking the real warming, caused by Mankind. Why couldn’t the warming be due to mostly natural activity, including the Sun? Because it’s a cult. Even though the Sun explains 95% of the climate change over the past 400 years (really, much longer).

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove. Follow me on Twitter @WilliamTeach.

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