Take it from a guy who was suggesting that we use gay marriage as a campaign issue to hammer the Democrats way back in July of 2003, this was not an election that centered on cultural issues.

That's not to say "culture war issues" are unimportant. People will turn out to vote against gay marriage, abortion, and for a candidate who they believe shares their faith and values. However, those issues alone are not the make or break issues that determine who becomes the next President in and of themselves. If you think otherwise, then I have two words for you: Bill Clinton.

So if this election wasn't just another battle in the culture war, what was it really all about? If I may tinker with that classic Clinton campaign line a bit, "it's the war on terrorism stupid"!

Why did the left hate George Bush so much? There were a lot of factors that played into it, but the one thing that really drove them up the wall was his approach to the war. Going after nations that supported terrorism? Without the approval of the UN? Outrageous! We've got to get rid of Smirky McChimp before Belgium, Germany, and France become furious with us and withdraw their valuable assistance! Besides, by killing all the terrorists instead of counting on UN summits to make us safe, Bush is playing right into Osama's hands!

On the other hand, in January of 2004, after Bush had announced his wildly unpopular "American jobs for illegal immigrants" program and started spending so much money on the space program and the National Endowment for the Arts that you'd think the election was going to be decided by statue making astronauts, the base was ready to riot. But, because conservatives were horrified by the idea of having an indecisive Massachusetts weenie as their Commander-in-Chief during the middle of a war, they rallied around W.

This is not a hard thing to figure out. Bush and Kerry slugged it out on foreign policy all year long. It was all about "plans" for Iraq, the Iraqi election, "Why did you let Osama get away?", "Would you rather that we left Saddam in power?", "I fought in Vietnam!", "He voted to slash weapons systems!", "But he's making the world mad at us!," etc, etc, etc, for 9 solid months.

Then, Bush wins and "It was all about morality"? No, that's just spin. Gay marriage, abortion, and other moral issues played a role in deciding the winner, just as the economy, jobs, tax cuts, likability, and a few other issues did. But, if this election boiled down to any one thing, it was all about the war on terrorism and who was best qualified to wage it. To say otherwise, is to rewrite the history of the campaign.

-- So Arafat's about to kick the bucket? Suits me just fine. I only regret that terrorist vermin is going to die in a bed instead of violently like so many of his victims.

I know some people worry about what will happen after Arafat dies, but face it, Arafat is just about the worst option imaginable. Here's one of the most murderous terrorists on the planet, who refuses to make peace with Israel, who turned the apparatus of the failed "Palestinian state" into a machine designed to produce new terrorists, and yet in Europe he's treated like a peacemaker thwarted by war loving Israelis. As long as Arafat rules, there can never be peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Whatever comes after Arafat will be -- in the long term -- better than anything "Mr. Nobel Peace Prize" could have ever delivered. Will there be Civil War? Better that the Palestinians kill each other than the Israelis. Plus, the more they fight amongst each other, the more likely it is that they'll get "fought out" and ready to seriously pursue peace. Will Hamas or some other group of terrorists take over? Maybe, but if they do, there will be no reason for Israel, Europe, or the US to treat Palestinian leadership as anything other than the terrorists. Even that would be an improvement over what we have today, which is terrorists masquerading as statesmen.

-- There's a lot of talk about whether or not Bush's victory constitutes a "mandate" for his agenda. I'm from the school of thought that says that if you win, act like you have a mandate. I say that because if you've won, that means the majority of people support your agenda on the whole and if what you're doing works, you'll pull in a few new voters from the other side after it's implemented.

-- According to the The American Spectator, the Kerry campaign pulled a Nixon style dirty trick on election day...

"According to at least three sources, one inside the Kerry campaign, and two outside of it, but with ties to senior Kerry advisers, some of the "early polling numbers" were in fact direct reports from Kerry campaign or Democratic Party operatives on the ground in such critical states as Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to a Washington lobbyist with knowledge of the numbers, the numbers were packaged together so as to appear to be exit poll results. They were then scrubbed through several sources to land in the lap of sympathetic bloggers who these operatives believed would put the numbers up with little question."

That echoes something Jonah Goldberg said on election day,

"Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign."

However, I would note that whoever burned those "sympathetic bloggers" like Wonkette somehow managed to trick Drudge as well because his numbers were identical to hers.

Of course, that may explain why Drudge put the numbers up and yanked them soon after. But, if Drudge suspected he was faked out, why didn't he say anything about it? And if the Kerry campaign was actually leaking fake numbers -- which is a bottom of the barrel, sleazy trick -- who was responsible for it?

Hey Drudge, Wonkette, there's no need to protect a source who deliberately used you. Let the world know who fed you these numbers...

-- Since the election is over, I thought it was time to talk about the elections in Iraq, the draft, and whether we can really help Iraq become a Democracy. The truth is that I expect there are going to be elections in Iraq in January, there isn't going to be a draft, and I believe Iraq is on the way to becoming a Democracy. Note that I'm saying exactly what I said before the election, after the election. That's a new concept huh? Too bad the polls don't do it more often...

-- Here we are, days after a big Republican victory at the polls, and we already have Arlen Specter betraying Republicans by threatening to block pro-life judges from the Supreme Court. When conservatives were outraged by that, Specter started backtracking, but it's too late for that. We didn't win at the polls just so that our own guys could turn around and undercut us right off the bat.

So what can you do about it? Specter is going to be the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee...unless conservatives can stop him. So contact your Senator, drop a line to the White House, let the members of the Judiciary Committee know how you feel.

-- I've been reading a lot of left-wing websites over the last few days in part to see if I can get a sense of why they believe they lost the election. After the 2002 election, there were schools of thought...

1) The party is too far to the left and we need to come back to the center to win.
2) We didn't fight hard enough. We've got to be more liberal, appeal to the base, and get nasty with the GOP.

Within a few days, #2 won out.

This time, there seem to be much deeper divisions on the left and there's a lot more soul searching going on. The schools of thought this time around are...

1) We didn't fight hard enough. We've got to be more liberal, appeal to the base, and get nasty with the GOP.
2) The election was rigged, we had no chance before we began.
3) A) We're out of touch with what the majority of the country thinks and we need to change our message
B) We're out of touch with what the majority of the country thinks and they're idiots who can't understand that we're geniuses.
C) We're out of touch with what the majority of the country thinks, let's move to another country.
4) The party is too far to the left and we need to come back to the center to win.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out this time around.

Now why didn't I come up with an idea for a t-shirt as cool as the one Frank J. at IMAO created?

That shirt is just toooooooo sweeeeeeet!

PS: I slapped Frank J.'s logo on an image of a larger shirt I found on Google so it would be easier to see.

Here are a few quotes from lefties at home and abroad reacting to Bush's win. I think you'll find it to be enlightening...or at least amusing =D

-- "I cannot possibly put into words how disappointed, angry, and perplexed I am right now. The reported results coming out of Florida and Ohio simply make no sense to me. I cannot comprehend how we could have such a massive increase in turnout and not win the election. To paraphrase that little weasel Tucker Carlson: You don't wait in line for five hours to vote for more of the same. Who knows, maybe some people really would wait in line for more of the same. But my impression is that something just stinks here. As EarlG told me this morning: The result is either massively fraudulent or deeply disturbing." -- Skinner on the Democratic Underground Homepage

-- "I grew up in Missouri and most of my family voted for Bush, so I am going to be the one to say it: The election results reflect the decision of the right wing to cultivate and exploit ignorance in the citizenry. I suppose the good news is that 55 million Americans have evaded the ignorance-inducing machine. But 58 million have not. (Well, almost 58 million—my relatives are not ignorant, they are just greedy and full of classic Republican feelings of superiority.)" -- Jane Smiley in Slate from a column called, "Why Americans Hate Democrats—A Dialogue. The unteachable ignorance of the red states".

-- "Were I a Kerry voter, though, I'd feel deep anger, not only at them returning Bush to power, but for allowing the outside world to lump us all into the same category of moronic muppets. The self-righteous, gun-totin', military lovin', sister marryin', abortion-hatin', gay-loathin', foreigner-despisin', non-passport ownin' red-necks, who believe God gave America the biggest d*ck in the world so it could urinate on the rest of us and make their land "free and strong." -- The Daily Mirror on the people who voted for Bush

-- "Yanks had the chance to show the world a better way this week, instead they made a thuggish cowboy ride off into the sunset bathed in glory. And in doing so it brought Armageddon that little bit closer and re-christened their beloved nation The Home Of The Knave and the Land Of The Freak. God Help America." -- Brian Reade in the Daily Mirror

-- "I look at the big map and all of the red in flyover country and I feel like I've been locked in a room with the slow learners. We have become the country that pulls a dry cleaning bag over its head to play astronaut." -- Tbogg

-- "The Nuremberg Tribunal (1945-1946) proclaimed: "Individuals have international duties which transcend the national obligations of obedience ... Therefore [individual citizens] have the duty to violate domestic laws to prevent crimes against peace and humanity from occurring." Mind you, this is the Nuremberg Tribunal I'm quoting...not an anarchist collective or a dusty Thoreau tome. This is an edict borne of a population that chose to remain silent in the face of its government's criminality. Lucy Gwin, editor of the essential disability rights zine Mouth, once told me she believed the greatest gift that could ever been given to the American people is the permission to disobey. We should consider that permission long granted..." -- Mickey Z at Counterpunch

-- "Does healing our house divided really require the blood sacrifice of civil war? Let's hope not, but it will take more than empty calls for unity to fix things. One of the central lies of the Bush presidency has been Dubya's insistence that he is "a uniter, not a divider," when, in fact, the opposite is true. The 50 percent of this country that does not buy his lies is going to have to do some serious soul-searching to find a way out of the trauma trap. If the Bushies can counter every vote or political move with one of their own, we're going to have to find a way to change the game. Stubborness, defiance, and resistance will not be enough. A Manichean struggle between good and evil plays too much to the Bush mindset to defeat it. We're going to have to find a way—or someone—to inspire and lead this country back to a whole and better self, someone who can transcend this standoff. An alchemist who can turn this sh*t into gold." -- Knute Berger In The Seattle Weekly

-- "One would expect that the blogging machine which the White House and the Bush-Cheney campaign has used for any number of purposes over their four years will start now, if it hasn't started already, to say, listen, Kerry-Edwards, for the good of the country, need to concede." -- Dan Rather on the Bush-Cheney "Blogging Machine" =D

-- "My progressive friends: I know you are disheartened. So am I. A record turnout should have ensured a Kerry sweep. And there's no doubt that we will never know whether the Ohio vote count was legitimate. One thing is certain, however: Bush is still not the legitimate president of the United States. He ran on an incumbency he never earned." -- Ted Rall

-- "Americans did not vote for fascism - but the fascists now control all three branches of our government: the Presidency, Congress, and the Supreme Court. In 1935, Sinclair Lewis warned against the rise of an American fascism in "It Can't Happen Here". Well, it can - and it will, unless we stop it now" -- Bob Fertik at Democrats.com

-- "The first term of Bush, he had come in as a lame duck. Now it appears as if he is winning very convincingly. To me I think we are going to see more dictatorship on an international scale. We are going to see more extremism come out of there. We are going to see even more isolationism where America will not bother about the United Nations. To me that is a very sad affair." -- Kenyan Vice President Moody Awori

-- "I think if Kerry were to win this in a tight race, I think there would be an effort to mount a coup, quite frankly." -- Bill Moyers

-- "Rove's re-election strategy was elegantly simple: Scare the bejesus out of Jesusland. F@ggots are headed your way! Satanic Muslims are hiding everywhere! That's all it took to get Jesusland to do the job. Intellectual conservatives like the National Review staff are flattering themselves if they honestly believe Jesusland cares about conservative thought. The "reality-based" folks are learning that Jesusland doesn't even care about jobs or the economy. In Jesusland, it's all the will of Jesus. No job? No money? Daughter got her clit pierced? Jesus is just f*cking with you again, testing your faith. Got the cancer? Oh well. Soon you'll be with Jesus. Reality is no match for a mystical world in which an all-powerful god is constantly toying with every detail of your mundane life, just to see what you'll do about it. Keep praying and always keep your eye out for homosexuals and terrorists, and you will eventually be rewarded ... all you have to do is die, and then it's SuperJesusLand, where you will be a ghost floating in a magic cloud with all the other ghosts from Jesusland, with Jesus Himself presiding over an Eternal Church Service." -- Ken Layne

-- "I was one who defended Americans from being called stupid. I thought they were ignorant of the facts, but not stupid. However, enough of the truth came out in the final three months of this election that an inanimate carbon rod should have beaten Bush. My opinion of Americans has changed." -- From David at BlogAmY

-- "I'm going to apply for an Irish passport. And starting tonight, I'm going to read "Civil Disobedience" to my kids." -- Jay McInerney gives his answer to the question "what do we do now?" which was posed by Salon.

-- "First of all, this election was definitely rigged. I have no doubt about it. It's a statistical impossibility that Bush got 8 million more votes than he got last time." -- Mark Crispin Miller gives his answer to the question "what do we do now?" which was posed by Salon.

-- "...(S)ome of us might long for a secession wherein certain parts of the country declare their sovereign autonomy, but given our current state of quasi-united states, well, bush won. tonight i realized that although america is possessed of a lot of progressive people, america is essentially a right-wing republican country. we might resist this fact, but it is a fact. it's not a fact in manhattan. it's not a fact in l.a or san francisco. but for 100+ million people it's a fact....can someone remind me why secession is not an option at this point? i mean let's be realistic, we live in a divided country. can't we have the breakaway republics of 'north-east-istan' and 'pacific-stan'? wouldn't the red states be happier without us?" -- Moby gives his answer to the question "what do we do now?" which was posed by Salon.

-- "The Liarfuhrer of the combined forces of unfettered corporate greed and undemocratic theocracy has led his thoughtless followers to the promised land of arrogance, thought-control, and selfishness run amock". -- From a post called "NEOFASCISTS TAKE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION" on Bush Watch

-- "This much has changed for me in the past few hours, after raging at 51 percent of the people in this country. To be honest, I didn't really care much about the feelings of that 51 percent -- I far more cared about rectifying our terribly tarnished image throughout the world. (As my Italian friend just wrote to me, "The fact is four more years of aggressions, lies, destruction of social systems all around the world, are just too much. It's medieval. I'm scared.") Now, however, I realize that we have to treat our own country as a foreign country, with whom our relations are strained beyond the point of communication." -- Heidi Julavits gives his answer to the question "what do we do now?" which was posed by Salon.

-- "I know you don't want to hear it. You can't face one more hung chad. But I don't have a choice. As a journalist examining that messy sausage called American democracy, it's my job to tell you who got the most votes in the deciding states. Tuesday, in Ohio and New Mexico, it was John Kerry". -- Greg Palast

I know it's early, but there are already a lot of people who already looking forward to 2008. Here's a quick run down on the bigger names getting tossed around (the field will be bigger than this)

-- Bill Frist: Senators don't make particularly good candidates because they have to compromise so much to get legislation passed and tend to look wishy washy (see John Kerry). Plus, Frist has been largely unimpressive as Majority Leader.

-- John McCain: McCain has rabid support from the media and a base of support in the GOP, but he is loathed by a lot of conservatives by a egomaniacal blowhard who deliberately torpedoes other Republicans for no other reason than to get his name in the press. Plus, McCain will be 72 in 2008 which lessens his appeal. Personally, I can't stand McCain...

-- Chuck Hagel: See John McCain minus the age.

-- Jeb Bush: In a lot of ways, Jeb is a better candidate than W. He could guarantee a win in Florida, does well with Hispanics, and is probably more Hispanic. But, I just don't think people will go for another Bush after having a Bush in the White House for 20 of the last 28 years. Is that fair? Not really, but I think that's exactly why Jeb won't be the nominee in 2008 whether he runs or not.

-- Rick Santorum: I like Santorum, but he is an "in-your-face" style social conservative and he's not terribly charismatic. Given that, he may be able to build some support in the primaries, but I'm not sure he has what it takes to win the nomination or the Presidency.

-- Mitt Romney & George Pataki: With a field that's going to be this deep, I just don't see two RINOs like these guys getting serious traction.

-- Rudolph Giuliani: Rudy is a great speaker, has tremendous charisma, and increased his standing in the party enough during this election cycle that he'll probably be the favorite in 2008. That being said, Giuliani has some personal baggage, is pro-abortion, very moderate, & is from New York, but probably couldn't deliver the state if Hillary (who's the Dem fave right now) is the Dem's candidate. You can't help but like "America's Mayor", but I have a real concern that Giuliani would leave a lot of the base cold if they got to know him better.

Personally, I hoping that we'll have a charismatic, conservative, Republican governor who'll get in the race and catch fire "Howard Dean style" without the "Howard Dean style" flameout just when it seems like the race is in the bag.

Bonus: The "Big 3" Dems...

Hillary Clinton: Hillary is the most likely choice for the Dems, but I think she's overrated as a candidate. She's very liberal, doesn't have her husband's charisma, has high negatives, and has a lot of baggage left over from her husband's presidency. In other words, I don't really think Hillary Clinton is the type of candidate who's going turn significant portions of red America blue -- but who knows? 4 years is a long time.

Al Gore: All the "we've got get payback for 2000" momentum that Gore had built among the Democratic base seems to have largely evaporated and all that remains is a guy who isn't particularly charismatic & has the stink of defeat all over him. My guess is that Dems won't want to take a chance on Gore again if the field's strong and it likely will be.

John Edwards: Edwards is good looking, likeable, and has increased his standing in the Party with this run as VP. However, Edwards added very little to the ticket during this election and are the Dems going to pull the trigger on a guy from North Carolina who probably can't deliver any Southern states? I tend to doubt it.

*** Update #1 ***: By the way, don't get the idea that I'm "down" on our chances in 2008 because I spent a lot of time cataloguing the weaknesses of our candidates. Whoever we field should be AT LEAST of comparable strength to anyone the Dems can come up with...

Hey, they've lifted the ban at the DU that kept people who were weren't registered members from reading the forums and I was right back in there. Know why? Because the left is never loonier than after a huge defeat and I just couldn't wait to see what they had to say. Here are just a few of the posts that jumped out at me......enjoy!

DuaneBidoux: "America to World: F*ck Yourself. Let's get the meme out: Boycott American. Corporations. Pass on the Fords, GMs, Coca Cola. When businesses hurt abroad they will begin telling Bush his policy of being world asshole is bad for busines.

If you listened to the right wing this morning you know the score: they want revolution. F*ck this sh*t. This is war."

woody b: "Dear friends from Ohio,

The world will most grateful you if you start a calm revolution by gathering evidence that a lot more people voted for Kerry than for Bush."

Q3JR4: "A call to action. Or, COME ON PEOPLE!!!!! Your votes didn't count. If you live in Ohio, Colorado, Florida, they didn't count. Bush stole the election....AGAIN. With the level of voter disenfranchisement, intimidation, and Diebold trickery going on, you think that more people here would see that.

Come on people! What are we waiting for? Pick the call up and pass it along alread!"

PhuLoi: "Secession may be the last option to save the Constitution. Given the unbridgable chasm that has opened between the Blue states and the Red states, I feel that secession should be seriously considered. Blue states are no longer duly represented, votes are not being counted whereas computer created votes seem to be counted.

The basic tenants of the Constitution are endangered and we of the Blue states seem powerless to defend them. Let us then consider divorcing ourselves from this abusive relationship and reorganize under the Constituion, as it was intended, leaving the Red states to wallow in their own filth."

fdr_hst_fan: "Thanks to the inbred, redneck, Bible-besotted Solid South, we're saddled with the village idiot and his Nazi followers for another four years.

That's the error Lincoln and Andrew Johnson made: they wanted to be "conciliatory" to the Confederacy. Horse hockey! They STARTED that war; they didn't DESERVE any consideration! They didn't stop to consider their actions at Fort Sumter, did they?"

Liberal_Andy: "I stopped flying the flag today. I've flown the US flag every sunny day (I'm on my third one)since 9/11. I just can't do it anymore. Maybe on 7/4. We'll see."

Mountainman: "I hate America Did you hear that freeps? Several months ago, when ever I saw or heard a wingnut ask a liberal "why do you hate America?" I got pissed. The question didn't deserve an answer.

What I'm going to do is to get together with like minded people and make little pieces of America that we can love and hopefully those little pieces will grow and connect until we can love all America again."

Hey guys, look what's for sale on eBay: it's Michael Moore's Relevance! Currently it's at a low, low, price of $151.50 (+ $5 shipping) so get it while it's hot! Here are the details...

"After the Kerry/Edwards election failure tuesday, Michael Moore's relevance is one of the rarest items available on E-Bay today. This auction is for whatever relevance Mr. Moore has seven days from now. I do not anticipate there will be much left, but there just might be enough to give to the highest bidder. I am positive that once his relevance is gone seven days from now there will be no more to be found anywhere, at any price. Good Luck in your bidding.........."

Hat tip to Henry Hanks from Croooow Blog for sending me the link.

Sen. John Forbes Kerry, who was also a presidential candidate until recently, today finally explained "the plan" to which he often referred during his White House bid.

"You probably thought my plan involved sitting in the Oval Office," said Mr. Kerry, "But everything I have done this year was simply to lay the groundwork for my triumphal ascension to the post of Senate Minority Leader. Now that my coattails have carried Tom Daschle to defeat, I stand ready to lead the remainder of the senate Democrats with my progressive ideas."

A straw poll of Democrat senators shows that Mr. Kerry stands a good chance of garnering the position, since the party is looking for "fresh new faces."

"I've never met him personally," said one veteran U.S. Senator, "but it sounds like he has the personality to pick up where Sen. Daschle left off."

If you enjoyed this satire by Scott Ott, you can read more of his work at Scrappleface.

There's a lot of carping from the mainstream media about bloggers posting the exit polls, but I'm not sorry I did it.

Heck, I posted exit polls in 2002, I posted them last night, and if I can get my hands on them, I'll be posting them in 2006.

There are two reasons for that.

First and foremost, people want to see the exit polls and unlike the MSM, bloggers are in the business of giving people what they want. Personally, I don't think I should be saying,

"Sure I can be trusted with this information, but the 'peons' out there? They can't handle it!"

IMaybe that's the wrong approach to have, maybe not.

But we live in a world where MSM organizations actually run our military's leaked BATTLE PLANS and classified documents when they can get their hands on them. They also take online polls from their websites that have obviously been stuffed and they'll present them to the public as if they actually mean something. That's exactly what they did during the debates and you have to wonder how many people thought something just like this after reading those polls that had been "freeped" by the Dems,

"Oh, 80% of the people in that online poll think John Kerry won the debate. Well, I thought Bush actually barely won it, but I must have been wrong. I guess Kerry did win..."

Given all of that, I don't think the media should be whining about bloggers posting exit polls although it would be nice if they spent a little more time trying to figure out exactly why the exit polling data was so far off.

Secondly, these polls were on Drudge, left-wing blogs were discussing them, I even heard a local radio host talking about them as I went home....so these numbers were out there. If conservative bloggers & websites hadn't stepped up and stemmed the panic and defeatism that was caused by these faulty numbers coming out, it could have cost Bush the election.

Remember that the original numbers showed Bush losing EVERY battleground state and many of them by huge margins. If people looked at those numbers and the long lines all at polling places all across the country that we had yesterday and then put 2 and 2 together, it would have been very easy for them to conclude that the huge turnout was for Kerry and that the race was as good as over.

But because conservative bloggers & websites were able to say "Hey, there's no way these numbers can be right" & "Oh, we hear that the Bush campaign says they're actually winning in states these polls show them being slaughtered in," people didn't lose heart and they still showed up to vote.

So as far as I'm concerned, posting the exit poll data was the right move and I have no problem with bloggers on the left or right who did so.

My pre-election 2004 Senate, battleground state, & popular vote predictions along with how things actually played out...

The Competitive Senate Races

State: South Dakota
My Analysis: Edge to Thune (75/25)
Winner: Thune (R) 50% Vs. Daschle (D) 49%

State: Florida
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)
Winner: Martinez (R) 49% Vs. Castor (D) 48%

State: Colorado
My Analysis: Edge to Salazar (75/25)
Winner: Salazar (D) 50% Vs. Coors (R) 47%

State: Oklahoma
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)
Winner: Coburn (R) 53% Vs. Carson (D) 41%

State: Alaska
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)
Winner: Murkowski (R) 49% Vs. Knowles (D) 45% W/ 98% of the vote counted

State: North Carolina
My Analysis: Edge to Burr (75/25)
Winner: Burr (R) 52% Vs. Bowles (D) 47%

State: Louisiana
My Analysis: Edge To Vitter (75/25 chance of hitting 50%)
Winner: Vitter (R) 51% Vs. John (D) 29% Vs. Kennedy (D) 15%

Battleground State Calls In The Presidential Race

State: Florida
My Analysis: Slight Edge for Bush (60/40)
Winner: Bush 52% Vs. Kerry 47%

State: Pennsylvania
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)
Winner: Kerry 51% Vs. Bush 49%

State: Ohio
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50)
Winner: Bush 51% Vs. Kerry 49%

State: Michigan
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)
Winner: Kerry 51% Vs. Bush 48%

State: Minnesota
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50)
Winner: Kerry 51% Vs. Bush 48%

State: Wisconsin
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50)
Winner: Kerry 50% Vs. Bush 49%

State: Iowa
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25)
Winner: Bush 50% Vs. Kerry 49%

State: New Mexico
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25)
Winner: Bush 50 Vs. Kerry 49%

State: Hawaii
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)
Winner: Kerry 54% Vs. Bush 45%

State: New Hampshire
My Analysis: Leaning towards Kerry (75/25)
Winner: Kerry 50% Vs. Bush 49%

Popular Vote

My prediction: Bush 51% Vs. Kerry 48%
Popular vote count: Bush 51% Vs. Kerry 48%

Had this third party candidate had the money to run more commercials, he might have siphoned enough votes away from George Bush and his GI Joe allies to throw the race to Kerry.

And an interesting question: Had GI Joe launched a missile at this guy's campaign HQ, would it have been a violation of McCain-Feingold?

-- Of course, Bush and the GOP were the obvious winners last night and Kerry and the Democrats were the obvious losers. Here are a few other winners and losers who come quickly to mind...

Winners

-- Iraq and all of our allies in the Coalition. Electing Mr. "Wrong war, wrong place, wrong time" could have very well led to disaster over there.

-- American soldiers who don't have to worry about being dragged in front of an International Criminal Court with Bush in the White House.

-- Mark Steyn, who pledged to quit writing (at least for a time) if Bush lost.

-- 93% of the right side of the blogosphere which correctly predicted that Bush would win again.

-- Since Right Wing News had its best day of the entire year yesterday, I'm declaring us a winner too. Make sure to bookmark us!

-- Wall Street, which is why the stock market is going up today.

-- National Review which was the hottest spot on the net Nov 2nd because of the inside scoops they got at the "The Kerry Spot" and "The Corner".

-- The Swift Boat Vets for Truth and the POWs who went after Kerry for his war record. They made a huge difference and I will tell you that in my opinion, if the Swifties had never formed, John Kerry would be our President today.

-- Hillary Clinton who's the favorite to get the Democratic nomination in 2008, but who would have had to wait until 2012 to fight veep John Edwards for the position had Kerry won.

Losers

-- The terrorists who now have to face another four years of Bush and don't get the breather that Kerry would have given them.

-- The mainstream media that damaged their credibility with "memogate" and the phony "missing explosives story" all in an effort to help someone who lost.

-- Terry McAuliffe who has now led the Dems to two disastrous defeats in 2002 and 2004.

-- Iran and North Korea who were obviously hoping for lenient treatment & sweet deals from a Kerry administration just shot snake eyes.

-- Old Europe which was looking forward to a neutered "Kerry America" just got four more years of a man they really don't like.

-- Advocates of gay marriage who saw it voted down everywhere it came up for vote.

-- Bill Clinton who isn't going to take Kofi Annan's job as long as George Bush is in the White House.

-- The people doing the exit polling. How did it bomb out so badly?

-- Zogby, who went out of his way to tell everyone that Bush has no chance of winning this election and predicted a big victory for Kerry. That's the 2nd election in a row that Zogby stunk it up worse than any other major pollster.

*** Update #1 ***: Michelle Malkin has her winners & losers list up here.

If you have any quotes from lefty blogs, commentators, websites, etc about the Bush win that are particularly kookie or vicious, post them in the comments section. I'm planning on posting some of the better ones tomorrow...

"Given the Democrats' defeatist attitude towards Iraq and a number of other ventures, you would think they would be more accepting of a loss tonight." --jason_the_halfling

I tend to doubt it because the margins are too big. It's one thing to try to go to court in a state like Florida when there's a 1000 vote spread and you've won the popular vote, but I don't see Kerry trying to steal a win in a situation like this.

For one thing, people REALLY don't want a repeat of 2000 and their tolerance level for legal games isn't going to be all that high. And, given that Bush won the popular vote this time and the margins are pretty large, I think there would be a big backlash against Kerry if he tried to flip some states in the court system.

I mean come on, Bush won Florida by more than 350,000 votes and Ohio (which wasn't finished by the time I went to bed) was in Bush's column by more than 100,000 votes. I just cannot imagine Kerry overcoming that in the court system.

So I expect Kerry to concede later today rather than try to start an unwinnable legal battle that's going to be a public relations nightmare for the Democrats.

*** Update #1 *** Maybe I'm wrong,

"Boston, MA - Kerry-Edwards campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill released the following statement:

"The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio."

Currently, with 91% of the vote counted, Bush is up by more than 100,000 votes.

*** Update #2 *** According to Fox, Kerry is talking about challenging in New Mexico and Ohio. But again, if Bush wins Ohio by 100,000 votes and Kerry tries to challenge that in the courts, he's going to look like a scumbag who's trying to steal an election in the courts. The margin is just going to be too big...

*** Update #3 *** So John Edwards came out at 2:30 AM to say "We're going to fight for every vote"? I think that's the polite way of saying, "We're going to try to steal the election in the courts".

These guys are just ridiculous. There's no way they can overcome a 100,000 vote margin in Ohio (and it may be 125,000+ by the time it's done) without doing something crooked. If they don't come to their senses and they go forward with this, get ready for the sleaze...

Thread on the Democratic Underground right now =D

-- We're rmoving to Canada
-- Resistance or secession?
-- Poll: Where will you move to if Bush wins?
-- If * prevails, I hope the draft is announced by the end of the year...
-- Get ready for the return of the Dark Age.
-- Doom! DOOOM!!!
-- People, we should have stormed the polling places...
-- They are gonna f*cking steal it and there is NOTHING we can do about it.
-- Anybody drunk yet?

Awwwww yeah!

Races That Were Called On Nov. 3rd

#7: Fox calls LA for Vitter (R)! He picks up a Democratic seat from Breaux. A lot of people were predicting a run-off in that race so that's a nice pick-up for the GOP.

#8: Salazar (D) picks up a seat held by Campbell (R) in Colorado. I thought it was leaning his way so that's not a big surprise.

#9: Thune (R) beats Daschle! Put 1 more seat in our column and as far as I'm concerned that's the 2nd best win of the night for us.

#10: Mel Martinez (R) takes Bob Graham's seat. That's one more for us!

#11: It LOOKS LIKE Lisa Murkowski is about retain in Alaska. With 98% of the vote counted. she's up 49% to 45%.

Races That Were Called On Nov. 2nd

#1: As expected, Obama picks up a seat for the Dems in Illinois by crushing Alan "worst candidate ever" Keyes.

#2: Oklahoma: Coburn retains a seat for GOP. Very good.

#3: Again, as expected the GOP picks up Zell Miller's seat in GA as Isakson brings it home.

#4: Fox calls it for Jim Demint in SC. That a Republican takeover from Ernest Hollings and not a big surprise.

#5: Jim Bunning (R) barely retains his seat in a tighter than expected squeaker.

#6: Richard Burr (R) takes the seat now held by John Edwards. Another very, very, sweet GOP pick-up.

It's 12:06 AM folks and here's how it breaks down. Bush is at 246 with the following states where Bush can still pick up electoral votes....

Ohio (20): Bush 51% vs. 48% with 74% of the vote counted
Michigan (17): Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48% with 36% of the vote counted
Minnesota (10): Kerry 54% vs. Bush 45% with 38% of the vote counted
Wisconsin (10): Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48% with 43% of the vote counted
Iowa (7): Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48% with 56% of the vote counted
New Mexico (5): Bush 51% vs. Kerry 48% with 68% of the vote counted
New Hampshire (4): Kerry 51% vs. Bush with 75% of the vote counted
Nevada (5): Kerry 50% vs. Bush 48% with 4% of the vote counted
Hawaii (4): N/A
Alaska (3): N/A

Nevada and Alaska are basically locks which means if Bush picks up Ohio, it's over.

*** Update #1 ***: The polls closed in Ohio -- what -- 5 hours ago? They should be done by now. By the way, from what I'm hearing watch for Kerry to tighten it up a bit more as they count Cuyahoga country and then Bush should be able to pull away as they hit the more Republican counties...

*** Update #2 ***: By the way, I've been watching Fox all night and scanning the net and I may note that Fox's coverage blew because they were sooooooo sloooooow to call states. I know all the networks are doing that because they'd don't want to pull the trigger too early, but this is ridiculous.

Even when the vote was 100% complete in Jim Bunning's race, they wouldn't call it. In Florida, they basically waited right up until the voting was done and Bush won by 5%. I mean, come on. PA was just as ridiculous because Kerry had a huge lead and they simply wouldn't call it until a couple of hours after it was obvious which way it was going.

There has to be a balance here guys...

*** Update #3 ***: 12:38 -- Kerry picks-up New Hampshire (4) from W. I said that state was leaning towards Kerry so it wasn't a big surprise, but it was so close I was hoping W. could keep it...

*** Update #5 ***: Fox calls Ohio for W! Yes, yes, yes!

*** Update #6 ***: Ok, boys and girls, I'm staying up until they call New Mexico, Nevada, or another state goes for for W and then I'm crashing. But the chances of W winning now? I'd say 99% because W. has 269 once Alaska comes in, but there's a faithless elector in WV who may not go for Bush and you can't discount the Dems stealing a close state in the court.

I want a 270+ before I go to bed and I'm going to get it...

*** Update #7 ***: Bush has already got Alaska. He's at 269...

*** Update #8 ***: Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5) are all looking pretty good for Bush although Iowa may have a small margin.

*** Update #9 ***: 1:38 Kerry takes Minnesota.

*** Update #10 ***: 2:25 Michigan called for Kerry.

*** Update #11 ***: I just can't help it if they simply refuse to call New Mexico for Bush. Here's the breakdown of the key states right before I go to bed here at 3 AM....

Ohio (20): Bush 51% vs. Kerry 49% with 97% of the vote counted (125k+ vote margin)
Wisconsin (10): Kerry 50% vs. Bush 49% with 90% of the vote counted
Iowa (7): Bush 50% vs. Kerry 49% with 97% of the vote counted
New Mexico (5): Bush 52% vs. Kerry 47% with 96% of the vote counted
Nevada (5): Bush 50% vs. Kerry 48% with 82% of the vote counted

Bush should pull out Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada and of course, he has already won Ohio. So that should put the final numbers at Bush 286 vs. Kerry 252.

So if Kerry is going to steal it, he's going to have to reverse a 100,000+ vote margin in Ohio to do it. The chances of Kerry doing that legitimately are pretty much nil, so if he doesn't come to his senses and concede, it's going to get real sleazy, real fast.

Furthermore, once Bush cracks 270, the first thing he should do is declare victory. Then if they try to drag this out, tar the entire Democratic Party with it.

All right, I'm crashing. See you 12-ish EST...

All right everybody, let's get ready for the final push. I'll be reporting the battleground state results as they come in and talking about the implications. I'm not going to bother with states that aren't in contention.

*** Update #1 ***: The Kerry Spot is hearing from a lot of confident people in the Bush campaign....

"About a half hour back, I posted word that a senior Bush campaign official was saying, "Ohio is won, Florida is won, and Pennsylvania is tied." Then Shannon Coffin noted a White House source saying, "Confident that Bush will win OH and FL, that he will roll in WVa (ten points?) and that Mel Martinez will carry Florida."

UPDATE: Middle Cheese checks in again. "Just checked in with the White House and on the Bush-Cheney campaign. They are confident that they will win both Ohio and Florida."

Well, so far, so good. Still waiting for a battleground state to break...

***Update #2***: The absentee vote margin here may explain the confidence of some of these Republican insiders about Florida but does it mean we will be waiting until at least Thursday to know the results?

"Florida's absentee ballots, which are expected to heavily favor President Bush, won't be counted until Thursday, because state election officials have been overwhelmed by heavy turnout of regular voters.

"When you get an absentee ballot, it's done by party affiliation, so they know how many more Republican [absentees] they have than Democrats," Angle said."

*** Update #3 ***: It's 9:12 PM EST and Yahoo has both Ohio and Florida leaning Bush. It's still early, too early to know anything, but again, so far, so good...

*** Update #4 ***: The Amendment in Colorado that would have retroactively split the state's electoral votes has lost. That saves W. 4 electoral votes.

*** Update #5***: It's 10:05 and not a single battleground state has been called yet. Given how Florida went last year with the early call, I suppose that's a blessing, but the sooner the better. I will say that PA. looks ready to go for Kerry which isn't unexpected.

*** Update #6 ***: According to Yahoo: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin are all leaning towards Bush. Take that with a grain of salt, but I'm very pleased with how it's going right now....

*** Update #7 ***: 10:29 Just as a note guys, I'm feeling VERY GOOD right now and VERY BULLISH about W's prospects. Take it for what it's worth...

*** Update #8 ***: Now Yahoo is projecting New Hampshire for Bush! W00t!

*** Update #9 ***: NBC calls PA for Kerry. Again, that's not a big surprise. But, what took them so long?

*** Update #10 ***: Here's a key fact to keep in mind folks. If Bush wins 2 out of 3 in Florida, Ohio, and Michigan (and he's ahead in all 3 right now), it's over. Kerry can't win....

*** Update #11 ***: Should you be feeling good right now? Well, here are some of the thread titles on just the first page of the DU General Discussion forum...

-- I'm Sorry. This Is So Surreal That I Just Gotta Laugh Now
-- This whole f*cking country is nuts
-- Don't forget this,Who knows what the Lawyer knows.
-- Keep positive people! We are still in it!
-- I this is the youth vote then they are just asking for a draft
-- Something is Very Wrong Out there....NC numbers don't add up
-- OMFG! This is so godd@mned transparent, I could vomit!
-- So preoccupied with the election, I just fell down a flight of stairs
-- This is depressing me
-- "If Bush Wins Again I Fear For America"
-- North Carolina needs to purge it's idiot population.
-- OK, so we're under attack.
-- how hard is it to move to canada if youre a student

I'm still feeling it and I'm watching Florida, Ohio, and Michigan...

*** Update #12 ***: Bush is up 52-47 with 95% of the vote counted. Geeze, call it for Bush already...

*** Update #13 ***: ABC calls Florida for Bush and the lead is wide enough that I think Democratic legal challenges would be futile.

#1: As expected, Obama picks up a seat for the Dems in Illinois by crushing Alan "worst candidate ever" Keyes.

#2: Oklahoma: Coburn retains a seat for GOP. Very good.

#3: Again, as expected the GOP picks up Zell Miller's seat in GA as Isakson brings it home.

#4: Fox calls it for Jim Demint in SC. That a Republican takeover from Ernest Hollings and not a big surprise.

#5: Jim Bunning (R) barely retains his seat in a tighter than expected squeaker.

#6: Richard Burr (R) takes the seat now held by John Edwards. Another very, very, sweet GOP pick-up.

StopDemocrats is doing an election night internet radio show tomorrow night. I'm supposed to be on from 7:30 to 8:00. Catch it you're so inclined but prepare yourself for my Southern drawl =D...

*** Update #1 *** I'm on in about 20 minutes. Too bad I'm not going on about 9 PM because we'll know a lot more by then.

*** Update #2 *** That was sort of odd. I don't think we discussed a single Senate race or battleground state. Ah well, it was fun...

Early exit info from Drudge...

"Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE..."

Kerry winning every wing state except Iowa (which is tied) in the polls Drudge has. In the two biggies...

Kerry +3 in Florida
Kerry +4 in Ohio.

Keep in mind, it's still early and these numbers aren't firm yet.

(Note: Drudge has taken the number down but has noted they are based on a "59-41 women to men ratio" and some of the numbers really look skewed to the left. For example, there's not a chance in the world that Kerry will take PA 60-40. Expect the numbers to swing back Bush's way as later exit polls come out.)

*** Update #1***: From Ramesh Ponnuru at The Corner...

"I'm told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and "doing well" in Ohio. And they don't think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up. Fwiw."

***Update #2***: The more I look at these numbers, the worse they look. Kerry +18 in Minnesota? By 16 in New Hampshire? By 20 in Pa?

My guess? Watch for a big swing back towards Bush in the next round of numbers.

***Update #3***: Now this is getting really interesting. Jonah Goldberg over at The Corner is saying...

"Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what's going on today.

...The exit numbers I posted were posted in order for me to debunk them. The Wonkette numbers are false. Or they are at least not exit poll numbers from today. It is possible, from what two sources tell me, that they are tallies of the early voting -- conducted by the Democrats. That's plausible."

Thing is, I think the original numbers Wonkette posted were dupes of what Drudge had up and took down and Drudge is saying he got his numbers from the "National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization". Wonkette has more numbers and they're still all Kerry.

They're still WAY higher than what Kerry can pull overall so there's no way they can be all that accurate...

***Update #4***: Uh-oh, here comes the pain for Kerry =D According to the latest numbers from Drudge, Kerry's numbers are plunging....

Original numbers

FL Kerry +3 | PA Kerry +20 | OH Kerry +4 | WI Kerry +4-9 | MI Kerry +3-4 | NH Kerry +16

Current numbers

FL Kerry +1 | PA Kerry+2-4 | OH Kerry+1 | WI Kerry+4 | MI Kerry+2 | NH Kerry +4 |

***Update #5***: Culled from Polipundit,

"At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point."

That's significant folks, because I think it's highly likely that W. is going to take Ohio. And if we take Florida and Ohio and the margin is high enough, this could be over by 9 PM tonight...

Also, from Hugh Hewitt,

"More good news coming from Bush HQ: Bush is winning the Catholic vote handily --and that matters a lot in PA, MI, WI and especially Ohio. Bush is beating his percentage of the Latino vote from 2000 as well. "There will be no recount.

...Liz Cheney on The Big Story with John Gibson and is brimming with confidence. Not likely at all that a family member would be allowed to spin. She says the margin will be big in Florida, comfortable in Ohio, and that plenty of the Gore states from 2000 are in play."

***Update #6***: From Jim Geraghty's Kerry Spot, the word on high from a top source in the Bush campaign...

"What you're hearing about the unreliability of exit polls is accurate. They are focused on urban areas. The exit polls need to be conducted in person, and obviously the media, even with their combined resources, have to pick and choose which polling places to conduct those exit polls. They under-poll rural and suburban areas.

Before anyone loses their optimism, wait until someone's reputation is on the line in making these calls on the swing states."

More from Geraghty's sources...

"The "big cheeses" in GOP circles weren't worried by today's nutty exit poll scare. They know the bad, bad history of initial exit polls. In 2000, the first polls showed Bush and Gore even - Bush won by nine points. The 2000 Florida poll showed Gore winning by three, and we all know that ended with a 537 vote Bush win.

There is total confidence that at the end of the night, Bush will win."

***Update #7***: From the Kerry Spot...

"Larry Sabato was just on one of the DC-area local stations, and just said something shocking - the reason it took forever to call Virginia, South Carolina, and North Carolina is that the exit polls had them for Kerry.

Sabato also said that the exit polls also had at least two other states "wrong" — which is not to say they had the wrong winner, but that they had results that were immediately detected as out of whack."

How low will they go in Wisconsin?

"Election Day got off to an ugly start at a parking lot on Milwaukee's northwest side.

...Wiley said the poll watchers were still able to make it to their assigned areas, and more than 50 rented vans are still being used."

One thing is for sure folks: Win, lose, or draw, the turnout has been ENORMOUS. Everywhere I go on the net I'm seeing stories about how many people are voting this time around. I suspected as much when I was talking to & reading about people who were spending 2-3 hours waiting in line even for early voting.

Now here's the question: Who's turning out?

Bush haters who can't wait to vote against him or Americans who are horrified at the idea of John Kerry running the country in a time of war? Some combination thereof?

My instincts and the numbers that came out yesterday from CBS (Bush up in early voting 51-43) & Harris (Bush up in early voting 50-46) suggest that it's about national security.

Time will tell if I'm right, but in any case, the turnout may make it much more likely that we'll have a clearcut winner TONIGHT which would suit me just fine.

7:30: Ohio
8:00: Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, New Hampshire
9:00: Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico
10:00: Iowa
12:00: Hawaii

There should be exit polls out earlier than the times above. If I can get them, I'll post them..

Jim Miller from National Review, who's a very sharp guy, is calling some Senate races differently than I am. Here's his analysis...

ALASKA: The polls here have consistently shown a tight race — and the most recent ones have consistently shown Democrat Tony Knowles slightly ahead of Republican senator Lisa Murkowski. This is a GOP state that Bush will carry by about 25 points — but Alaskans seem comfortable with Knowles, their former governor, and he has done an effective job of presenting himself as a true moderate willing to break with his party on issues such as Arctic drilling. Meanwhile, Murkowski hasn't been able to shake the suspicion that she got her current job because her daddy appointed her to it. KNOWLES WINS — DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER (My Call: Toss-Up)

SOUTH DAKOTA: Democratic Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the GOP's biggest target this year. With the exception of John Kerry, this is the Democrat that Republicans would most like to defeat. Their candidate, former congressman John Thune, has enjoyed a good October. A victory for him looks more plausible than it did a month ago. But he'll still have to overcome the fact that many South Dakotans think they benefit from Daschle's seniority. If Bush's reelection were a foregone conclusion, Daschle would be in deeper trouble. Thune has a shot here, but it isn't as good as the one he had two years ago against Tim Johnson. DASCHLE WINS — DEMOCRATIC RETENTION (My Call: Edge to Thune)

This has got to be disheartening for Democrats. John Kerry's pollster is apparently predicting defeat...

“We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”

He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote."

If Matthew Dowd were saying it was over for Bush before it started that would be pretty depressing.

Hat tip to Cliff May over at The Corner for the story.

*** Update ***: The actual Mellman column is here. He DOES NOT predict a Bush victory per se, but he spends the whole column explaining why Kerry probably won't win.

Here are some of the highlights...

"...First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct."

(***This one is particularly irritating given how the Kerry campaign has spun the economy***)

"...Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote. "

"...Bush’s approval ratings are also indicative of the difficulties Kerry faces. It is certainly true that the average incumbent who has been reelected has had a much higher job approval rating — 62 percent. Bush’s approval rating is now about 49 percent. Yet the last time an incumbent was beaten — Bush’s father — just 33 percent approved of his performance. When Carter was defeated, he had an approval rating of only 37 percent. On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38 percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that.

...Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote."

To be honest, I'm a little suprised Mellman allowed this to be released today. This is the sort of column you put out the DAY AFTER the election, explaining why you lost....

Fraud in Philly? Big suprise there huh?

Before voting even began in Philadelphia -- poll watchers found nearly 2000 votes already planted on machines scattered throughout the city... One incident occurred at the SALVATION ARMY, 2601 N. 11th St., Philadelphia, Pa: Ward 37, division 8... pollwatchers uncovered 4 machines with planted votes; one with over 200 and one with nearly 500... A second location, 1901 W. Girard Ave., Berean Institute, Philadelphia, Pa, had 300+ votes already on 2 machines at start of day... INCIDENT: 292 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 7/7: ADDRESS: 122 W. Erie Ave., Roberto Clemente School, Philadelphia, Pa.; INCIDENT: 456 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 12/3; ADDRESS: 5657 Chew Ave., storefront, Philadelphia, Pa... A gun was purposely made visible to scare poll watchers at Ward 30, division 11, at 905 S. 20th St., Grand Court. Police were called and surrounded the location... Developing...

Boy, I'd certainly love to know who the votes on those machines were for and how they managed to get votes on all those different machines at all those different addresses...

Hat tip to The Drudge Report for the story.

*** Update #1 ***: RWN reader Shane suggests a plausible explanation for the votes being on the machines that doesn't involve fraud...

"It is possible that the votes are just what was left over from a demonstration. I do not know for certain in Philly, however I do know that at my junior high we had a chance to vote using actually voting machines the week before the election. It is possible that these votes on these machines were from "mock" elections like these and were not cleared off of the machines when they were returned. Also, these were most likey found during setup of the machines and were cleared before the polls opened."

*** Update #2 ***: Apparently Rudy Giuliani said he was victimized by this tactic in his first election...

"The Republican mayor told WABC Radio's John Gambling that at the time his advisors had calculated he'd need 50,000 to 75,000 extra votes just to compensate for Democratic Party fraud in New York City.
When he lost the race by just 42,000 votes, he said, "We had all sorts of claims of voter irregularities."

"There were machines that already had hundreds of votes on them," he explained. "When they open that machine - if you don't have your poll watcher there to look at the back of it, you could start off the election in that district down 100 votes, down 200 votes, down 300 votes."

John Hood over at The Corner handicaps the much neglected governor's races...

"With regards to governors, Republicans go into the 2004 cycle with 28 vs. 22 for the Democrats. There are 11 gubernatorial races up for grabs, though it looks to me like six of these are essentially decided: three for the Rs and three for the Ds. The five remain matchups are:

***Gov. Joe Kernan (D) vs. Mitch Daniels (R) in Indiana. Likely GOP takeover.
***Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Matt Blount (R) in Missouri. Leaning GOP takeover.
***John Lynch (D) v. Gov. Craig Benson (R) in New Hampshire. Leaning GOP retention, unless a big Kerry wave materializes.
***Brian Schweitzer (D) v. Bob Brown (R) in Montana. Likely Democratic takeover.
***Christine Gregoire (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in Washington. Leaning Democratic retention."

The New York Times asked several bloggers what they "thought was the most important event or moment of the campaign". I wasn't one of the bloggers they contacted, but I thought it would be fun to answer the question.

To make this challenging, I'm going do it in order and in exactly 5 minutes,...

9) Dan Rather was savaged in memogate which stole oxygen from Kerry and undercut the MSM's credibility.
8) Cheney beats Edwards into the ground in his debate.
7) John Edwards barely gives Kerry any sort of boost in the polls at all during the election.
6) The Republican Convention gets W rolling with an 8-10 point boost.
5) Bin Laden warns Americans in the final days of the campaign.
4) John Kerry takes a dig at Mary Cheney in the 3rd debate and stalls his momentum.
3) The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth spend August savaging Kerry.
2) Kerry gets the mo going in his favor by winning the first debate.
1) The Democrats botch their convention and only give Kerry a small boost.

Final State polls for the two key states, Ohio and Florida courtesy of Real Clear Politics...

FOX News: FL: Kerry +5 | OH: Bush +3
Zogby: FL: TIE | OH: Bush +6
Survey USA: FL: Bush +1, | OH: Bush +2
Rasmussen: FL: Bush +3 | OH: Bush +4
Strategic Vision (R) FL: Bush +4 | OH: Bush +2
Quinnipiac: FL: Bush +8
Ohio Poll: Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.2

While you'd like to see Bush winning both of those states by big margins, those are still very good numbers for W. Bush goes 4-1-1 in Florida and 6-0 in Ohio. You gotta love it...

Hat tip to Cox & Forkum for the great cartoon.

October was RWN's best month ever. RWN moved up from a previous best of 240,725 daily unique visitors & 403,376 pageviews in September to 315,917 daily unique visitors & 517,003 pageviews in October.

Thanks to all the pages that linked us and everyone who has read the page for helping us to grow.

State By State Breakdown

State: South Dakota
Seat Currently Held By: Daschle (D)
Competitors: Daschle (D) Vs. Thune (R)
Last Poll: Zogby Thune +3
Latest RCP poll spread: Thune +1.3
October Polling: Thune wins 3. Daschle wins 1. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Edge to Thune (75/25)

State: Florida
Seat Currently Held By: Graham (D)
Competitors: Martinez (R) Vs. Castor (D)
Last Poll: Fox Castor +6
Latest RCP poll spread: Castor +0.5
October Polling: Martinez wins 9. Castor wins 7. 7 ties.
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)

State: Colorado
Seat Currently Held By: Campbell (R)
Competitors: Coors (R) Vs. Salazar (D)
Last Poll: Zogby Salazar +8
Latest RCP poll spread: Salazar +4
October Polling: Salazar wins 7. 3 ties. Coors wins 2.
My Analysis: Edge to Salazar (75/25)

State: Oklahoma
Seat Currently Held By: Nickles (R)
Competitors: Coburn (R) Vs. Carson (D)
Last Poll: Coburn +8
Latest RCP poll spread: Coburn +6.7
October Polling: Coburn wins 10. Carson wins 4.
My Analysis: Likely Republican Retention (90/10)

State: Alaska
Seat Currently Held By: Murkowski (R)
Competitors: Murkowski (R) Vs. Knowles (D)
Last Poll: McLaughlin Murkowski +5
Latest RCP poll spread: N/A
October Polling: Knowles wins 2. Murkowski wins 1.
My Analysis: Toss Up (50/50)

State: North Carolina
Seat Currently Held By: Edwards (D)
Competitors: Burr (R) Vs. Bowles (D)
Last Poll: SurveyUSA Burr +5
Latest RCP poll spread: Burr +2.0
October Polling: Burr wins 8. Bowles wins 1. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Edge to Burr (75/25)

State: Louisiana
Seat Currently Held By: Breaux (D)
Competitors: Vitter (R) Vs. Kennedy (D) Vs. John (To avoid a run-off, the winner must crack 50%)
Last Poll: MRI Vitter 47% Vs. Kennedy 15% Vs. John 21%
Latest RCP poll spread: Vitter 43% vs. 33% opponents vs. 24% other/undecided
October Polling: Vitter 44% VS. 33% opponents vs. 23% other/undecided
My Analysis: Edge To Vitter (75/25 chance of hitting 50%)

South Carolina: DeMint (R) picks up a seat held by Hollings (D)
Georgia: Isakson (R) picks up a seat held by Miller (D)
Illinois: Obama (D) picks up a seat held by Fitzgerald (R)

Final Analysis:The GOP is likely to add 3 seats with 1 Republican and 1 Democratic seat that are toss-ups. So the GOP should add +2 to +4 seats in the Senate.

Hat tip to Real Clear Politics for the polling data.

Today's the big day folks! Make sure to get out and vote & keep checking in at RWN for updates...

On Nov 2nd and Nov 3rd, I'll be doing my best to give you comprehensive coverage of the election. I'll be looking for early results, exit polling data, and all the info you'll want to know as soon as possible. That means the posts will be shorter, more numerous and largely centered on the election. In fact, I'm even taking Nov 3rd off work so I can stay up late and read results.

So over the next couple of days, make sure to keep checking back in with RWN because I'll be delivering the results you want to see quick, fast, and in a hurry.

PS: Look for my Senate predictions first thing tomorrow.

This excerpt from the Iraqi Blog, "The Mesopotamian" is going to rankle Democrats even though everything in it is not just true, but painfully obvious to anyone who's paying attention...

"In case President Bush loses the election there would be a massive upsurge of violence, in the belief, rightly or wrongly, by the enemy, that the new leadership is more likely to “cut and run” to use the phrase frequently used by some of my readers. And they would try to inflict as heavy casualties as possible on the American forces to bring about a retreat and withdrawal. It is crucial for them to remove this insurmountable obstacle which stands in their way. They fully realize that with continued American and allies’ commitment, they have no hope of achieving anything.

On the other hand if President Bush is reelected, this will prove to them that the American people are not intimidated despite all their brutality, and that their cause is quite futile. Yes there is little doubt that an election victory by President Bush would be a severe blow and a great disappointment for all the terrorists in the World and all the enemies of America. I believe that such an outcome would result in despair and demoralization of the “insurgent elements” here in Iraq, and would lead to the pro-democracy forces gaining the upper hand eventually. Note that we are not saying that President Bush is perfect, nor even that he is better than the Senator, just that the present situation is such that a change of leadership at this crucial point is going to send an entirely wrong message to all the enemies."

George Bush is to terrorism what Ronald Reagan was to Communism: its greatest foe. And if he loses, make no mistake about it, the terrorists will view it as their greatest victory since 9/11. Maybe its impolitic to point that out, but it's true....

Hat tip to I Love Jet Noise for finding this one.

Earlier this year, I endorsed Democrat John Tanner for Congress in TN because his opponent was a nutjob, racist, crank. Well, what you're about to read inspired me to endorse my second Democrat for Congress this year...

"In a complaint to the Federal Elections Commission, the National Republican Campaign Committee accused radio station KFI-AM (640) co-hosts John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou of "criminal behavior" for attacking Rep. David Dreier, R-Glendora, and endorsing his Democratic opponent, Cynthia Matthews.

"Why do they even bring attention to it?" Hoffenblum wondered."

Here we have the National Republican Campaign Committee trampling on the First Amendment and trying to censor two radio hosts simply because those hosts aren't supporting "their guy". But, I don't just hold the Republican Campaign Committee responsible for this because there's absolutely no way that they would have done this had David Dreier opposed it.

That's ridiculous, reprehensible, and it deserves to be punished.

So I endorse Democrat Cynthia Matthews for his seat. Taking that chump Dreier down would be the best way not just to send a message about the importance of the First Amendment, but to fire a shot across the bow of Republicans who are selling out America by supporting illegal immigration.

Sure, Matthews is a Democrat and she may be no prize, but the GOP is going to retain Congress with or without Dreier, so he's an expendable RINO as far as I'm concerned. So, if you know of anyone who lives in the 26th District in California, I hope you'll consider urging them to vote against David Dreier.

Someone named Peter sent me an email saying that he was doing interviews with Republicans for his newsletter. He didn't tell me the name of the newsletter, but I thought I'd post his questions and my answers. Enjoy...

Q: Why do you hate liberals?

A: I don't hate them. I just feel compelled to point out that they're wrong about almost everything.

Q: Why do you think George Bush diverted attention to Iraq?

A: If bringing down a terrorist supporting, anti-American, dictator while continuing to hunt down terrorists across the globe is a "diversion", let's hope for more of them.

Q: Liberals are the people who made the civil rights movement and women's suffrage. What is your response to this?

A: Actually men like Bull Connor & George Wallace were Democrats and a higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats voted for the Civil Rights Act. And women's suffrage? If you have to reach back that far to find something significant that liberals have done, what does that tell you?

RWN Reader "Toejam" writes to say,

"Dear John,

Toejam"

If any of you happen to have a subscription to the Irish Times, how 'bout sending me a copy?

*** Update #1***: RWN reader Nicky Scarfo came through with the goods. Here are some key excerpts from "Internet neighbours can move too close for comfort" that'll give you a feel for the column...

"Wired on Friday: This American presidential election promises to be one of the most tense and scrutinised in history, both inside and outside the United States. Much of the scrutiny, analysis and pure partisan screaming is found on the internet - far more than any previous election. But what effect is this having on the electorate, or for that matter, the world?

...Well, like it or not, we all have our national bad teeth - controversies so burnt into our national psyche that we barely mention them in our own media for fear of shaming us all, or laying bare our own divisions. Thanks to the net, we'll all soon have an international audience to point these things out."

States In Play

State: Florida
Electoral Votes: 27
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +2
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush 1.9
October Polling: Bush wins 14. Kerry wins 11. 3 ties.
My Analysis: Slight Edge for Bush (60/40).

State: Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +3
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2.5
October Polling: Kerry wins 19. Bush wins 2. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)

State: Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Zogby Bush +5
Latest RCP poll spread: Tie
October Polling: Kerry wins 13. Bush wins 11. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50).

State: Michigan
Electoral Votes: 17
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2.4
October Polling: Kerry 13 wins. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)

State: Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +3
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry + 1.2
October Polling: Kerry wins 8. Bush wins 5.
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50).

State: Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +8
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2
October Polling: Bush wins 8. Kerry wins 7. 2 ties.
My Analysis: Coin Flip (50/50).

State: Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Zogby Kerry +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush +1.1
October Polling: Bush wins 11. Kerry wins 5. 1 tie.
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25).

State: New Mexico
Electoral Votes: 5
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: Arg Kerry +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush +3.8
October Polling: Bush wins 6. Kerry wins 4.
My Analysis: Leaning towards Bush (75/25).

State: Hawaii
Electoral Votes: 4
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Gore
Last Poll: SMS Research Bush +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Bush +0.9
October Polling: Bush wins 2. Kerry wins 0.
My Analysis: Likely Democratic Retention (90/10)

State: New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4
Bush Or Gore in 2000?: Bush
Last Poll: Arg Tie
Latest RCP poll spread: Kerry +2.0
October Polling: Kerry wins 8. Bush wins 2. 2 ties.
My Analysis: Leaning towards Kerry (75/25).

Final Breakdown

The election has tightened up in the last week or so. In fact, only 7 states truly appear to be in play. Kerry is threatening in Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire while Bush is putting the pressure on Kerry in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.

Because of that, I'd say that Kerry is probably going to need to take Florida and New Hampshire if he's going to win.

That's because I believe Bush is going to take New Mexico and Iowa which would be enough to get him to 270 if Kerry took Ohio.

If Kerry managed to capture Ohio and New Hampshire or even just Florida, Bush would need New Mexico, Iowa, and either Wisconsin or Minnesota to trump him. Since I think both Wisconsin and Minnesota are toss-ups, the odds are in Bush's favor if that were the scenario that occurred.

However, if Kerry took Florida and New Hampshire, the odds shift in Kerry's favor and of course, if Kerry takes Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire, Bush would have to win at least Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa, PLUS, he'd have to pull off a major surprise Pennsylvania or Michigan. That's highly unlikely.

That being said, everything I'm hearing seems to indicate that the undecideds are either breaking even or for Bush. Furthermore, the entire last week has revolved around explosives in Iraq and Osama Bin Laden, which means that security issues have been spotlighted. Since Bush has a large lead on Kerry in security related issues, that works in W's favor.

Taking all that into consideration, here are my final predictions for the election....

My Popular Vote Prediction

Bush 51% vs. Kerry 48%

Electoral College Prediction #1

Bush 296 Vs. Kerry 242 (Kerry takes NH, Bush takes IA, NM, & either MN or WI)

Secondary Electoral College Prediction

Bush 276 Vs. Kerry 262 (Kerry takes Oh & NH, Bush takes IA, NM, & either MN or WI)

Odds Prediction

75% chance of Bush winning -- 25% chance of Kerry winning.

Mark Dubbin, the author of "Shadow Patriot" bought another main page ad on RWN to get the word out about his book. Here's the description of it from Barnes & Noble...

"The events of 9/11 affected many things in New York and the Mafia was no exception. Business suffered for Don Remondini after the attack, but he wasn't about to let it go. The cowards who cost him would receive a message from the Family if he had anything to say about it. They would think twice about their actions in the future. That much was certain.

Jim Pearce is Don Remondini's chief of security. As an Ex-Special Forces sniper, discharged from duty with diabetes, he is assigned to send al-Qaeda a powerful message from the Family. Operating outside the law, and using his CIA contacts, Shadow Patriot is a web of action and intrigue where the guilty will be made to pay, and payback can be a b*tch!"

I've done ads for this book before and one of RWN's readers had actually read the book. Jay said the following,

"I bought it after seeing the link to it on Amazon posted on here last time. The book itself is very short, only about 110 pages I believe. It was a little far fetched, but all in all a very good read."

Here's what a couple of intelligent people on Amazon had to say about the book,

Reviewer: A reader from Las Cruces, NM United States

A wonderful story taking a different approach to the effects of 9/11, and how it was dealt with. Rather than sit back and complain about what happened on that eventful day, a plan was set to take out a terrorist cell. Neat idea and easy flowing writing. Makes for a good, sunny afternoon read.

Reviewer: nicothefabulous from Littleton, CO United States

In a world where justice can be hard to come by, sometimes you have to make your own. Reminds me a bit of The Rocketeer, with the FBI agents and Mafia guys fighting the Nazis side-by-side. Maybe more people with the financial means to do so should take note of this story! I want to see the movie. A classic tale of good old-fashioned American payback.

You can purchase the Shadow Patriot by clicking here.